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Tacuary v Paraguari AC

Tacuary

2–4Full time

Paraguari AC

Division Intermedia · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:30

Tacuary 2–4 Paraguari AC PARAGUARI AC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paraguari AC win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.555

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.574

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paraguari AC win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Paraguari AC was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
1′KICK-OFF Tacuary v Paraguari AC
36′Paraguari AC find the net on 37′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–70
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Tacuary 0–1 Paraguari AC
36′⚽ GOAL · 37' Tacuary 0–1 Paraguari AC
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Paraguari AC win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
43′We published Paraguari AC at 39%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 8–21–72
45′SECOND HALF Tacuary 0–1 Paraguari AC
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Tacuary 0–2 Paraguari AC · J. Ayala
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Tacuary 0–2 Paraguari AC
77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Paraguari AC
77′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Tacuary
77′⚽ GOAL · 79' Tacuary 0–2 Paraguari AC
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Tacuary 0–3 Paraguari AC · R. Escobar
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Tacuary 1–3 Paraguari AC · V. G. Velazco Ramirez
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Tacuary 1–3 Paraguari AC
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Tacuary 1–4 Paraguari AC · V. G. Velazco Ramirez
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Tacuary 1–4 Paraguari AC
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Tacuary 2–4 Paraguari AC · V. G. Velazco Ramirez
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Tacuary 2–4 Paraguari AC
FTFULL TIME Tacuary 2–4 Paraguari AC
FTTacuary 2–4 Paraguari AC · Paraguari AC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tacuary win33%

Draw28%

Paraguari AC win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paraguari ac winPublished 9 Oct 21:03

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Paraguari AC a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · paraguari ac win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tacuary win	33%	32%	0
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Paraguari AC win	39%	38%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	48%	44%	+4
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	68%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	26%	25%	+1
Tacuary or draw	61%	62%	−1
Tacuary clean sheet	26%	–	–
Paraguari AC clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.8 9.4 7.0 3.2 1 8.3 13.3 8.4 3.8 2 5.6 7.5 5.1 2.3 3 2.3 3.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tacuary down, Paraguari AC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Division Intermedia matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tacuary at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Paraguari AC away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Tacuary, 1.36 for Paraguari AC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PAR 0–1 TAC

Form · last six in Division Intermedia

TACUARY

LDLDWL0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3

PARAGUARI AC

WWWWLW3–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	27	+21	54
2	General Caballero	27	+21	53
3	12 de Junio VH	27	+9	50
4	Benjamín Aceval	27	+7	42
5	SOL DE America	27	+8	41
6	Independiente F.b.c.	27	+5	40
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	27	−7	39
8	Paraguari AC	27	+1	38
9	Atlético Tembetary	27	−3	36
10	Resistencia	27	−1	35
11	Fernando De La Mora	27	−7	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	27	−6	29
13	3 de Noviembre	27	−7	26
14	Guairena FC	27	−14	25
15	Tacuary	27	−13	24
16	Encarnación	27	−14	22