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SOL DE America v Sportivo Carapeguá

SOL DE America

2–4Full time

Sportivo Carapeguá

Division Intermedia · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 02:00

SOL DE America 2–4 Sportivo Carapeguá SOL DE AMERICA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SOL DE America win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.801

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SOL DE America win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF SOL DE America v Sportivo Carapeguá
2′Little has changed for our model: SOL DE America 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' SOL DE America 1–0 Sportivo Carapeguá
6′⚽ GOAL · 7' SOL DE America 1–0 Sportivo Carapeguá
8′🟥 RED CARD · 8' SOL DE America
8′🟥 RED CARD · 9' SOL DE America
21′E. Kovacs scores for SOL DE America on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' SOL DE America win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' SOL DE America 2–0 Sportivo Carapeguá · E. Kovacs
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' SOL DE America 2–0 Sportivo Carapeguá
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' SOL DE America 2–1 Sportivo Carapeguá · F. S. Leguizamon Samudio
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' SOL DE America 2–1 Sportivo Carapeguá
42′Sportivo Carapeguá ahead on 32′ through A. Cabrera. 2–1. 2–1 · 77–18–5
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' SOL DE America win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
45′SECOND HALF SOL DE America 2–1 Sportivo Carapeguá
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' SOL DE America 2–2 Sportivo Carapeguá · A. Cabrera
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' SOL DE America 2–2 Sportivo Carapeguá
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' SOL DE America 2–3 Sportivo Carapeguá · M. Aquino
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' SOL DE America 2–3 Sportivo Carapeguá
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' SOL DE America 2–4 Sportivo Carapeguá · M. Aquino
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' SOL DE America 2–4 Sportivo Carapeguá
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' SOL DE America 2–4 Sportivo Carapeguá · M. Aquino
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' SOL DE America 2–4 Sportivo Carapeguá
FTFULL TIME SOL DE America 2–4 Sportivo Carapeguá
FTSOL DE America 2–4 Sportivo Carapeguá · SOL DE America win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SOL DE America win46%

Draw28%

Sportivo Carapeguá win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 23:30

Venue · Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sol de america winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make SOL DE America a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sol de america win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SOL DE America win	46%	44%	+2
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Sportivo Carapeguá win	26%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
SOL DE America or draw	74%	73%	+2
SOL DE America clean sheet	36%	–	–
Sportivo Carapeguá clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.6 7.7 4.4 1 11.3 13.3 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.5 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SOL DE America down, Sportivo Carapeguá across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Division Intermedia matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SOL DE America at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Carapeguá away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for SOL DE America, 1.02 for Sportivo Carapeguá. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 SOL · SPO 1–5 SOL · SOL 2–1 SPO · SPO 1–0 SOL

Form · last six in Division Intermedia

SOL DE AMERICA

DLWLWD1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

SPORTIVO CARAPEGUÁ

LWWDWD2–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	27	+21	54
2	General Caballero	27	+21	53
3	12 de Junio VH	27	+9	50
4	Benjamín Aceval	27	+7	42
5	SOL DE America	27	+8	41
6	Independiente F.b.c.	27	+5	40
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	27	−7	39
8	Paraguari AC	27	+1	38
9	Atlético Tembetary	27	−3	36
10	Resistencia	27	−1	35
11	Fernando De La Mora	27	−7	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	27	−6	29
13	3 de Noviembre	27	−7	26
14	Guairena FC	27	−14	25
15	Tacuary	27	−13	24
16	Encarnación	27	−14	22