Resistencia v Benjamín Aceval prediction · Division Intermedia

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ResistenciaDrawBenjamín Aceval

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Resistencia 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Resistencia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Resistencia 41%, draw 27%, Benjamín Aceval 32%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Resistencia v Benjamín AcevalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Resistencia win41%

Draw27%

Benjamín Aceval win32%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Resistencia

Benjamín Aceval

10Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Division Intermedia

Last match: 18 Oct · Division Intermedia

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	+4	42
9	Resistencia	29	0	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · resistencia winFirst published 22 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make Resistencia a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Resistencia v Benjamín Aceval~~1.50 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 39 v 42~~9 v 8

~~The market · Resistencia win~~41% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Resistencia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Resistencia win	41%	41%	0
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Benjamín Aceval win	32%	33%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Resistencia or draw	68%	67%	+1
Resistencia clean sheet	28%	–	–
Benjamín Aceval clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.3 7.1 5.2 2.3 1 8.3 12.6 7.6 3.3 2 6.9 8.7 5.6 2.4 3 3.4 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Resistencia down, Benjamín Aceval across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Division Intermedia matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 236 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Resistencia at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Benjamín Aceval away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Resistencia, 1.30 for Benjamín Aceval. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BEN 2–0 RES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 12 Sept

RESISTENCIA

LLLWDW1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

BENJAMÍN ACEVAL

LWLLLL1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	29	+22	57
2	General Caballero	29	+21	56
3	12 de Junio VH	29	+11	54
4	Paraguari AC	30	+7	47
5	SOL DE America	30	+7	45
6	Independiente F.b.c.	30	+5	43
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	30	−6	43
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	+4	42
9	Resistencia	29	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	30	−7	37
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	−3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	29	−10	34
13	3 de Noviembre	30	−8	30
14	Guairena FC	30	−15	29
15	Tacuary	29	−14	27
16	Encarnación	30	−14	26