Resistencia v 12 de Junio VH prediction · Division Intermedia

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Resistencia 1–1 12 de Junio VH 12 DE JUNIO VH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said 12 de Junio VH win~~36%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.745

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 12 de Junio VH win at 36%.
1′KICK-OFF Resistencia v 12 de Junio VH
3′Much as we predicted: 12 de Junio VH was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 35–28–36
4′Much as we predicted: 12 de Junio VH was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 35–28–36
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was 12 de Junio VH win 30%)
45′HALF-TIME Resistencia 0–0 12 de Junio VH
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was 12 de Junio VH win 30%)
46′SECOND HALF Resistencia 0–0 12 de Junio VH
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Resistencia 0–1 12 de Junio VH
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Resistencia 1–1 12 de Junio VH
FTFULL TIME Resistencia 1–1 12 de Junio VH
FTResistencia 1–1 12 de Junio VH · 12 de Junio VH win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Resistencia win35%

Draw30%

12 de Junio VH win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Resistencia

12 de Junio VH

9Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	12 de Junio VH	27	+9	50
10	Resistencia	27	−1	35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 12 de junio vh winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

36% The market51%

Us36%

~~Market~~51%

We make 12 de Junio VH a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 12 de junio vh win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Resistencia win	35%	23%	+12
Draw	30%	27%	+3
12 de Junio VH win	36%	51%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	27%	−5
Resistencia or draw	64%	49%	+15
Resistencia clean sheet	30%	–	–
12 de Junio VH clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.3 10.1 6.7 2.7 1 9.9 13.8 7.8 3.2 2 6.4 7.6 4.6 3 2.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Resistencia down, 12 de Junio VH across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,486 Division Intermedia matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.6% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Resistencia at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). 12 de Junio VH away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Resistencia, 1.21 for 12 de Junio VH. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DEJ 3–2 RES · DEJ 2–2 RES · RES 1–1 DEJ · RES 0–4 DEJ

Form · last six in Division Intermedia

RESISTENCIA

WLLLLW2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0

12 DE JUNIO VH

DDWLDD1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	27	+21	54
2	General Caballero	27	+21	53
3	12 de Junio VH	27	+9	50
4	Independiente F.b.c.	28	+8	43
5	Benjamín Aceval	27	+7	42
6	Sportivo Carapeguá	28	−5	42
7	SOL DE America	28	+6	41
8	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
9	Atlético Tembetary	28	−6	36
10	Resistencia	27	−1	35
11	Fernando De La Mora	28	−8	34
12	3 de Noviembre	28	−6	29
13	Deportivo Capiata	27	−6	29
14	Guairena FC	28	−13	28
15	Tacuary	28	−15	24
16	Encarnación	28	−15	22