Paraguari AC v Fernando De La Mora prediction · Division Intermedia

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 01:30

Paraguari AC 2–0 Fernando De La Mora PARAGUARI AC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paraguari AC win~~47%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.414

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paraguari AC win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Paraguari AC 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–25
1′KICK-OFF Paraguari AC v Fernando De La Mora
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Paraguari AC win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Paraguari AC 0–0 Fernando De La Mora
46′SECOND HALF Paraguari AC 0–0 Fernando De La Mora
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Paraguari AC win 39%)
50′We said Paraguari AC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–43–22
53′We said Paraguari AC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–21
54′Paraguari AC score on 54′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Paraguari AC 1–0 Fernando De La Mora
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Paraguari AC win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Paraguari AC win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 46%)
55′We said Paraguari AC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
56′We said Paraguari AC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
70′We said Paraguari AC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Paraguari AC win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
79′We said Paraguari AC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′We said Paraguari AC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Paraguari AC win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
93′Paraguari AC find the net on 90′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′We said Paraguari AC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Paraguari AC 2–0 Fernando De La Mora
FTFULL TIME Paraguari AC 2–0 Fernando De La Mora
FTParaguari AC 2–0 Fernando De La Mora · Paraguari AC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paraguari AC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paraguari AC 47%, draw 27%, Fernando De La Mora 25%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Paraguari AC v Fernando De La MoraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Paraguari AC win47%

Draw27%

Fernando De La Mora win25%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paraguari AC

Fernando De La Mora

11Days since last match10

Last match: 9 Oct · Division Intermedia

Last match: 10 Oct · Division Intermedia

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
12	Fernando De La Mora	28	−8	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paraguari ac winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

47% The market33%

Us47%

~~Market~~33%

We make Paraguari AC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paraguari AC v Fernando De La Mora~~1.54 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 8 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 41 v 34~~8 v 12

~~The market · Paraguari AC win~~33% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Paraguari AC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paraguari AC win	47%	33%	+14
Draw	27%	32%	−5
Fernando De La Mora win	25%	36%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	48%	38%	+10
Both teams to score	52%	46%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	64%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	27%	20%	+7
Paraguari AC or draw	75%	64%	+11
Paraguari AC clean sheet	35%	–	–
Fernando De La Mora clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.5 7.1 4.2 1 10.6 12.8 6.3 2.3 2 8.8 9.1 4.8 3 4.5 4.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paraguari AC down, Fernando De La Mora across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,495 Division Intermedia matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 230 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paraguari AC at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fernando De La Mora away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Paraguari AC, 1.06 for Fernando De La Mora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FER 2–2 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 8 Sept

PARAGUARI AC

WWWLWW3–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 4–2

FERNANDO DE LA MORA

WLWWLL1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	29	+22	57
2	General Caballero	29	+21	56
3	12 de Junio VH	29	+11	54
4	SOL DE America	29	+7	44
5	Independiente F.b.c.	28	+8	43
6	Benjamín Aceval	29	+4	42
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	29	−6	42
8	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
9	Resistencia	29	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	29	−7	36
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	−3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	28	−8	34
13	3 de Noviembre	29	−8	29
14	Guairena FC	29	−15	28
15	Encarnación	29	−14	25
16	Tacuary	28	−15	24