Independiente F.b.c. v Paraguari AC prediction · Division Intermedia

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Independiente F.b.c. 1–3 Paraguari AC INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C. WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente F.b.c. win~~40%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.683

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.839

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente F.b.c. win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Independiente F.b.c. v Paraguari AC
2′Much as we predicted: Independiente F.b.c. was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
17′Paraguari AC score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–22–62
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Independiente F.b.c. 0–1 Paraguari AC
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Independiente F.b.c. win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Paraguari AC win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Independiente F.b.c. win 38%)
18′We said Independiente F.b.c. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–22–62
29′We said Independiente F.b.c. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–63
38′Paraguari AC find the net on 38′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Independiente F.b.c. 0–2 Paraguari AC
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Independiente F.b.c. win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
39′We said Independiente F.b.c. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
45′Paraguari AC ahead on 37′ through G. Ayala. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
45′HALF-TIME Independiente F.b.c. 0–2 Paraguari AC
46′SECOND HALF Independiente F.b.c. 0–2 Paraguari AC
57′A goal for Independiente F.b.c. on 57′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–22–71
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Independiente F.b.c. 1–2 Paraguari AC
58′We said Independiente F.b.c. at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–22–71
59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–22–72
61′Paraguari AC score on 61′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Independiente F.b.c. 1–3 Paraguari AC
62′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Independiente F.b.c. win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
72′62′: V. G. Velazco Ramirez on the scoresheet for Paraguari AC, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
95′Independiente F.b.c. find the net on 90′. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–2–98
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Independiente F.b.c. 2–3 Paraguari AC
95′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+5' Independiente F.b.c.
FTFULL TIME Independiente F.b.c. 1–3 Paraguari AC
FTIndependiente F.b.c. 1–3 Paraguari AC · Independiente F.b.c. win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente F.b.c. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Independiente F.b.c. 40%, draw 27%, Paraguari AC 33%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Independiente F.b.c. v Paraguari ACBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off

Independiente F.b.c. win40%

Draw27%

Paraguari AC win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Independiente F.b.c.

Paraguari AC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · Division Intermedia

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Paraguari AC	29	+5	44
6	Independiente F.b.c.	29	+7	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · independiente f.b.c. winFirst published 22 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market47%

Us40%

~~Market~~47%

We make Independiente F.b.c. a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Independiente F.b.c. v Paraguari AC~~1.49 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 14 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 43 v 44~~6 v 5

~~The market · Independiente F.b.c. win~~47% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Independiente F.b.c. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente F.b.c. win	40%	47%	−7
Draw	27%	27%	0
Paraguari AC win	33%	26%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	49%	+4
Both teams to score	57%	53%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	72%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	31%	30%	+1
Independiente F.b.c. or draw	67%	74%	−7
Independiente F.b.c. clean sheet	27%	–	–
Paraguari AC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.1 7.2 5.3 2.4 1 8.2 12.5 7.7 3.4 2 6.7 8.6 5.7 2.5 3 3.3 4.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente F.b.c. down, Paraguari AC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,497 Division Intermedia matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 232 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente F.b.c. at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Paraguari AC away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Independiente F.b.c., 1.32 for Paraguari AC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PAR 3–2 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 14 Sept

INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C.

WWLWWL1–0 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–3

PARAGUARI AC

WWLWWW3–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	29	+22	57
2	General Caballero	29	+21	56
3	12 de Junio VH	29	+11	54
4	SOL DE America	29	+7	44
5	Paraguari AC	29	+5	44
6	Independiente F.b.c.	29	+7	43
7	Benjamín Aceval	29	+4	42
8	Sportivo Carapeguá	29	−6	42
9	Resistencia	29	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	29	−7	36
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	−3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	29	−10	34
13	3 de Noviembre	29	−8	29
14	Guairena FC	29	−15	28
15	Tacuary	29	−14	27
16	Encarnación	29	−14	25