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Independiente F.b.c. v Atlético Tembetary

Independiente F.b.c.

3–0Full time

Atlético Tembetary

Division Intermedia · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Independiente F.b.c. 3–0 Atlético Tembetary INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C. WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente F.b.c. win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.519

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.454

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente F.b.c. win at 41%.
4′A goal for Independiente F.b.c. on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–19–14
4′KICK-OFF Independiente F.b.c. v Atlético Tembetary
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Independiente F.b.c. win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
25′Much as we predicted: Independiente F.b.c. was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–31 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Independiente F.b.c. win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Independiente F.b.c. 1–0 Atlético Tembetary
45′A goal for Independiente F.b.c. on 44′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Independiente F.b.c. win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Independiente F.b.c. 1–0 Atlético Tembetary
46′SECOND HALF Independiente F.b.c. 1–0 Atlético Tembetary
54′We published Independiente F.b.c. at 41%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–6
66′⚽ GOAL · 63' Independiente F.b.c. 2–0 Atlético Tembetary
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Independiente F.b.c. 3–0 Atlético Tembetary
FTFULL TIME Independiente F.b.c. 3–0 Atlético Tembetary
FTIndependiente F.b.c. 3–0 Atlético Tembetary · Independiente F.b.c. win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Independiente F.b.c. win41%

Draw26%

Atlético Tembetary win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · independiente f.b.c. winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Independiente F.b.c. a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · independiente f.b.c. win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente F.b.c. win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	26%	28%	−1
Atlético Tembetary win	32%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	49%	+5
Both teams to score	58%	54%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	72%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	33%	29%	+3
Independiente F.b.c. or draw	68%	73%	−5
Independiente F.b.c. clean sheet	27%	–	–
Atlético Tembetary clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.7 6.7 5.1 2.3 1 7.9 12.3 7.6 3.4 2 6.7 8.7 5.8 2.6 3 3.4 4.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente F.b.c. down, Atlético Tembetary across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Division Intermedia matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 218 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente F.b.c. at home: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Tembetary away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Independiente F.b.c., 1.34 for Atlético Tembetary. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–2 IND · IND 2–5 ATL · ATL 2–1 IND

Form · last six in Division Intermedia

INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C.

DWWWLW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

ATLÉTICO TEMBETARY

LDLLWW0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	27	+21	54
2	General Caballero	27	+21	53
3	12 de Junio VH	27	+9	50
4	Benjamín Aceval	27	+7	42
5	Sportivo Carapeguá	28	−5	42
6	SOL DE America	28	+6	41
7	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
8	Independiente F.b.c.	27	+5	40
9	Atlético Tembetary	27	−3	36
10	Resistencia	27	−1	35
11	Fernando De La Mora	27	−7	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	27	−6	29
13	3 de Noviembre	27	−7	26
14	Guairena FC	27	−14	25
15	Tacuary	28	−15	24
16	Encarnación	27	−14	22