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Guairena FC v Sportivo Carapeguá

Guairena FC
0–0Full time
Sportivo Carapeguá

Division Intermedia · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 23:27
Guairena FC 0–0 Sportivo Carapeguá GUAIRENA FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Guairena FC win36%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.757
The market’s Brier score0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Guairena FC win at 36%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Guairena FC 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Guairena FC v Sportivo Carapeguá
  4. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Guairena FC win 34%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Guairena FC 0–0 Sportivo Carapeguá
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Guairena FC 0–0 Sportivo Carapeguá
  7. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–48–26
  8. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Guairena FC win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
  9. 61′We said Guairena FC at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
  10. 70′We said Guairena FC at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
  11. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Guairena FC win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
  12. 77′We said Guairena FC at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
  13. 82′We said Guairena FC at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–81–9
  14. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Guairena FC win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
  15. 91′We said Guairena FC at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–0 · 3–93–3
  16. FTFULL TIME Guairena FC 0–0 Sportivo Carapeguá
  17. FTGuairena FC 0–0 Sportivo Carapeguá · Guairena FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Guairena FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Guairena FC 36%, draw 29%, Sportivo Carapeguá 35%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Guairena FC v Sportivo CarapeguáBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off

Guairena FC win36%
Draw29%
Sportivo Carapeguá win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guairena FC

Sportivo Carapeguá

4Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Division Intermedia

Last match: 16 Oct · Division Intermedia

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Sportivo Carapeguá29−642
14Guairena FC29−1528

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guairena fc winFirst published 22 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off
36% The market36%
Us36%
Market36%

We make Guairena FC a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Guairena FC v Sportivo Carapeguá1.25 – 1.22
Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 12 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 28 v 4214 v 8
The market · Guairena FC win36% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40% 22 OCT 09:0123 OCT 20:16
Our probability · Guairena FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Guairena FC win36%36%0
Draw29%27%+2
Sportivo Carapeguá win35%37%−2
Over 2.5 goals45%53%−8
Both teams to score51%57%−6
Over 1.5 goals71%76%−5
Over 3.5 goals24%32%−8
Guairena FC or draw65%63%+2
Guairena FC clean sheet30%––
Sportivo Carapeguá clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%
0123450 9.6 9.5 6.3 2.6 1 9.6 13.6 7.7 3.2 2 6.6 7.9 4.8 3 2.8 3.3 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Guairena FC down, Sportivo Carapeguá across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored4 of 5
Last meetingsSPO 2–1 GUA · SPO 3–3 GUA · GUA 1–1 SPO · GUA 1–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 12 Sept

GUAIRENA FC

LDLLWL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

SPORTIVO CARAPEGUÁ

WDWDWL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Deportivo Santani29+2257
2General Caballero29+2156
312 de Junio VH29+1154
4SOL DE America29+744
5Paraguari AC29+544
6Independiente F.b.c.29+743
7Benjamín Aceval29+442
8Sportivo Carapeguá29−642
9Resistencia29039
10Atlético Tembetary29−736
11Deportivo Capiata29−335
12Fernando De La Mora29−1034
133 de Noviembre29−829
14Guairena FC29−1528
15Tacuary29−1427
16Encarnación29−1425

The competition's standings before kick-off.