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Guairena FC v Encarnación

Guairena FC

1–0Full time

Encarnación

Division Intermedia · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Guairena FC 1–0 Encarnación GUAIRENA FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guairena FC win~~41%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.519

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.501

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guairena FC win at 41%.
4′Guairena FC find the net on 7′. 0–0. 0–0 · 42–29–30
4′KICK-OFF Guairena FC v Encarnación
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Guairena FC 1–0 Encarnación
25′We said Guairena FC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–8
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Guairena FC win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
29′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Encarnación
43′⚽ GOAL · 7' Guairena FC 1–0 Encarnación · A. Arce
43′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Encarnación
45′A goal for Encarnación on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Guairena FC 1–0 Encarnación
49′SECOND HALF Guairena FC 1–0 Encarnación
52′We said Guairena FC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–4
FTFULL TIME Guairena FC 1–0 Encarnación
FTGuairena FC 1–0 Encarnación · Guairena FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Guairena FC win41%

Draw30%

Encarnación win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guairena fc winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

41% The market42%

Us41%

~~Market~~42%

We make Guairena FC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guairena fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guairena FC win	41%	42%	−1
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Encarnación win	29%	29%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−7
Guairena FC or draw	71%	71%	0
Guairena FC clean sheet	36%	–	–
Encarnación clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.1 9.2 5.3 1 11.7 13.9 6.6 2.3 2 8.1 8.2 4.2 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guairena FC down, Encarnación across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Division Intermedia matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 218 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guairena FC at home: 0.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Encarnación away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Guairena FC, 1.03 for Encarnación. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ENC 1–2 GUA · ENC 3–0 GUA · GUA 3–1 ENC · GUA 2–3 ENC

Form · last six in Division Intermedia

GUAIRENA FC

LLLDLL1–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

ENCARNACIÓN

WDLWLL2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	27	+21	54
2	General Caballero	27	+21	53
3	12 de Junio VH	27	+9	50
4	Benjamín Aceval	27	+7	42
5	Sportivo Carapeguá	28	−5	42
6	SOL DE America	28	+6	41
7	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
8	Independiente F.b.c.	27	+5	40
9	Atlético Tembetary	27	−3	36
10	Resistencia	27	−1	35
11	Fernando De La Mora	27	−7	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	27	−6	29
13	3 de Noviembre	27	−7	26
14	Guairena FC	27	−14	25
15	Tacuary	28	−15	24
16	Encarnación	27	−14	22