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General Caballero v Deportivo Santani

General Caballero

2–1Full time

Deportivo Santani

Division Intermedia · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

General Caballero 2–1 Deportivo Santani GENERAL CABALLERO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said General Caballero win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.435

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.484

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said General Caballero win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF General Caballero v Deportivo Santani
3′Little has changed for our model: General Caballero 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
4′Little has changed for our model: General Caballero 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' General Caballero 1–0 Deportivo Santani
23′21′ and it is 1–0: General Caballero have scored. 1–0 · 72–18–10
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' General Caballero win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' General Caballero win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' General Caballero win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
25′21′ and it is 1–0: General Caballero have scored. 1–0 · 72–18–10
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' General Caballero win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' General Caballero win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
42′We said General Caballero at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–8
43′We said General Caballero at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
45′HALF-TIME General Caballero 1–0 Deportivo Santani
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' General Caballero win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
46′SECOND HALF General Caballero 1–0 Deportivo Santani
48′⚽ GOAL · 21' General Caballero 1–0 Deportivo Santani
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' General Caballero 2–0 Deportivo Santani
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' General Caballero 2–1 Deportivo Santani
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' General Caballero 2–1 Deportivo Santani
FTFULL TIME General Caballero 2–1 Deportivo Santani
FTGeneral Caballero 2–1 Deportivo Santani · General Caballero win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

General Caballero win46%

Draw25%

Deportivo Santani win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueEstadio Leandro Ovelar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

General Caballero

Deportivo Santani

6Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	27	+21	54
2	General Caballero	27	+21	53

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · general caballero winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make General Caballero a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · general caballero win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
General Caballero win	46%	43%	+3
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Deportivo Santani win	29%	28%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	48%	+10
Both teams to score	60%	53%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	81%	71%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	36%	28%	+8
General Caballero or draw	71%	72%	−1
General Caballero clean sheet	28%	–	–
Deportivo Santani clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.9 5.7 4.2 1 7.7 11.6 7.0 3.1 2 7.1 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.1 5.2 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+General Caballero down, Deportivo Santani across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,486 Division Intermedia matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.6% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

General Caballero at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Santani away: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for General Caballero, 1.31 for Deportivo Santani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–1 GEN · DEP 0–0 GEN · GEN 5–2 DEP

Form · last six in Division Intermedia

GENERAL CABALLERO

DWWLLW1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–0

DEPORTIVO SANTANI

WLWWWW3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	27	+21	54
2	General Caballero	27	+21	53
3	12 de Junio VH	27	+9	50
4	Independiente F.b.c.	28	+8	43
5	Benjamín Aceval	27	+7	42
6	Sportivo Carapeguá	28	−5	42
7	SOL DE America	28	+6	41
8	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
9	Atlético Tembetary	28	−6	36
10	Resistencia	27	−1	35
11	Fernando De La Mora	28	−8	34
12	3 de Noviembre	28	−6	29
13	Deportivo Capiata	27	−6	29
14	Guairena FC	28	−13	28
15	Tacuary	28	−15	24
16	Encarnación	28	−15	22