Fernando De La Mora v Deportivo Santani prediction · Division Intermedia

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fernando De La MoraDrawDeportivo Santani

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Santani 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Santani are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fernando De La Mora 27%, draw 29%, Deportivo Santani 44%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Fernando De La Mora v Deportivo SantaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Fernando De La Mora win27%

Draw29%

Deportivo Santani win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fernando De La Mora

Deportivo Santani

5Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · Division Intermedia

Last match: 19 Oct · Division Intermedia

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo santani winFirst published 22 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Deportivo Santani a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fernando De La Mora v Deportivo Santani~~1.03 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 34 v 57~~12 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fernando De La Mora win	27%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Deportivo Santani win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Fernando De La Mora or draw	56%	–	–
Fernando De La Mora clean sheet	25%	–	–
Deportivo Santani clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.0 11.4 8.6 4.1 1 8.1 13.5 8.7 4.1 2 4.7 6.4 4.5 2.1 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fernando De La Mora down, Deportivo Santani across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Division Intermedia matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 236 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fernando De La Mora at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Santani away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Fernando De La Mora, 1.40 for Deportivo Santani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–3 FER · FER 0–3 DEP · DEP 2–0 FER · FER 0–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 13 Sept

FERNANDO DE LA MORA

LWWLLL2–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–2

DEPORTIVO SANTANI

WWWWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	29	+22	57
2	General Caballero	29	+21	56
3	12 de Junio VH	29	+11	54
4	Paraguari AC	30	+7	47
5	SOL DE America	30	+7	45
6	Independiente F.b.c.	30	+5	43
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	30	−6	43
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	+4	42
9	Resistencia	29	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	30	−7	37
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	−3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	29	−10	34
13	3 de Noviembre	30	−8	30
14	Guairena FC	30	−15	29
15	Tacuary	29	−14	27
16	Encarnación	30	−14	26