Deportivo Santani v 3 de Noviembre prediction · Division Intermedia

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 23:00

Deportivo Santani 2–0 3 de Noviembre DEPORTIVO SANTANI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Santani win~~51%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.367

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.327

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Santani win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Santani 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Santani v 3 de Noviembre
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Deportivo Santani win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Santani 0–0 3 de Noviembre
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Santani 0–0 3 de Noviembre
46′We said Deportivo Santani at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–22
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Deportivo Santani win 39%)
53′We said Deportivo Santani at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Deportivo Santani 1–0 3 de Noviembre
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Deportivo Santani win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Deportivo Santani win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 43%)
55′Deportivo Santani find the net on 53′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Deportivo Santani win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
59′Deportivo Santani find the net on 58′. 1–0 · 81–16–3
63′We said Deportivo Santani at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Deportivo Santani 2–0 3 de Noviembre
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Deportivo Santani win: 51% at kick-off, 97% now
65′A goal for Deportivo Santani on 64′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
66′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
81′We said Deportivo Santani at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Santani 2–0 3 de Noviembre
FTDeportivo Santani 2–0 3 de Noviembre · Deportivo Santani win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Santani are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Santani 51%, draw 26%, 3 de Noviembre 24%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Santani v 3 de NoviembreBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Santani win51%

Draw26%

3 de Noviembre win24%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Santani

3 de Noviembre

8Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Division Intermedia

Last match: 10 Oct · Division Intermedia

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Deportivo Santani	28	+20	54
13	3 de Noviembre	28	−6	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo santani winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

51% The market53%

Us51%

~~Market~~53%

We make Deportivo Santani a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Santani v 3 de Noviembre~~1.68 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 8 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 54 v 29~~2 v 13

~~The market · Deportivo Santani win~~53% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Santani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Santani win	51%	53%	−2
Draw	26%	26%	0
3 de Noviembre win	24%	21%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	51%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	30%	0
Deportivo Santani or draw	76%	79%	−3
Deportivo Santani clean sheet	35%	–	–
3 de Noviembre clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.5 6.1 3.7 1 10.0 12.2 6.1 2.2 2 9.0 9.4 5.0 3 5.0 5.3 2.8 4 2.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Santani down, 3 de Noviembre across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 Division Intermedia matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 227 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Santani at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). 3 de Noviembre away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Deportivo Santani, 1.07 for 3 de Noviembre. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DEN 0–4 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 8 Sept

DEPORTIVO SANTANI

LWWWWL1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

3 DE NOVIEMBRE

WWDWLW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	General Caballero	28	+22	56
2	Deportivo Santani	28	+20	54
3	12 de Junio VH	28	+9	51
4	SOL DE America	29	+7	44
5	Independiente F.b.c.	28	+8	43
6	Benjamín Aceval	29	+4	42
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	29	−6	42
8	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
9	Resistencia	29	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	29	−7	36
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	−3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	28	−8	34
13	3 de Noviembre	28	−6	29
14	Guairena FC	28	−13	28
15	Tacuary	28	−15	24
16	Encarnación	28	−15	22