Deportivo Capiata v Tacuary prediction · Division Intermedia

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo CapiataDrawTacuary

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Capiata 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Capiata are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Capiata 48%, draw 27%, Tacuary 24%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Capiata v TacuaryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Capiata win48%

Draw27%

Tacuary win24%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 21:30

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Capiata

Tacuary

9Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Division Intermedia

Last match: 20 Oct · Division Intermedia

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	−3	35
15	Tacuary	29	−14	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo capiata winFirst published 22 Oct 09:31 · updated 25 Oct 04:14 · locked at kick-off

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make Deportivo Capiata a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Capiata v Tacuary~~1.54 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 35 v 27~~11 v 15

~~The market · Deportivo Capiata win~~54% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Capiata win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Capiata win	48%	54%	−6
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Tacuary win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	57%	−10
Both teams to score	50%	57%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	36%	−11
Deportivo Capiata or draw	76%	78%	−2
Deportivo Capiata clean sheet	37%	–	–
Tacuary clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 7.0 4.0 1 11.1 12.9 6.1 2.1 2 9.2 9.1 4.6 3 4.7 4.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Capiata down, Tacuary across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Division Intermedia matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 236 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Capiata at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tacuary away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Deportivo Capiata, 1.01 for Tacuary. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~TAC 0–0 DEP · DEP 0–0 TAC · TAC 0–4 DEP · DEP 1–1 TAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 13 Sept

DEPORTIVO CAPIATA

LLDDWW0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

TACUARY

LDWLLW1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	29	+22	57
2	General Caballero	29	+21	56
3	12 de Junio VH	29	+11	54
4	Paraguari AC	30	+7	47
5	SOL DE America	30	+7	45
6	Independiente F.b.c.	30	+5	43
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	30	−6	43
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	+4	42
9	Resistencia	29	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	30	−7	37
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	−3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	29	−10	34
13	3 de Noviembre	30	−8	30
14	Guairena FC	30	−15	29
15	Tacuary	29	−14	27
16	Encarnación	30	−14	26