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Deportivo Capiata v Benjamín Aceval

Deportivo Capiata

3–1Full time

Benjamín Aceval

Division Intermedia · MON 12 OCT · Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 02:00

Deportivo Capiata 3–1 Benjamín Aceval DEPORTIVO CAPIATA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Capiata win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.572

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.616

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Capiata win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Capiata 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Capiata v Benjamín Aceval
29′⚽ GOAL · 30' Deportivo Capiata 0–0 Benjamín Aceval
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Deportivo Capiata 1–0 Benjamín Aceval
39′⚽ GOAL · 30' Deportivo Capiata 1–0 Benjamín Aceval · A. Oviedo
39′⚽ GOAL · 40' Deportivo Capiata 1–0 Benjamín Aceval
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval · A. Oviedo
40′⚽ GOAL · 30' Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval · A. Oviedo
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
47′SECOND HALF Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
48′SECOND HALF Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
49′SECOND HALF Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
50′SECOND HALF Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
51′SECOND HALF Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
52′SECOND HALF Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
52′⚽ GOAL · 53' Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
53′SECOND HALF Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Deportivo Capiata 1–1 Benjamín Aceval
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Deportivo Capiata 2–1 Benjamín Aceval · M. Medina
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Deportivo Capiata 2–1 Benjamín Aceval
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Deportivo Capiata 3–1 Benjamín Aceval · J. Benitez
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Capiata 3–1 Benjamín Aceval
FTDeportivo Capiata 3–1 Benjamín Aceval · Deportivo Capiata win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 23:16 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Capiata win38%

Draw29%

Benjamín Aceval win33%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 23:30

VenueEstadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportivo Capiata

Benjamín Aceval

10Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Benjamín Aceval	27	+7	42
13	Deportivo Capiata	27	−6	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo capiata winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 23:16 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Deportivo Capiata a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo capiata win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Capiata win	38%	36%	+2
Draw	29%	29%	0
Benjamín Aceval win	33%	35%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	+1
Both teams to score	52%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	25%	0
Deportivo Capiata or draw	67%	65%	+2
Deportivo Capiata clean sheet	30%	–	–
Benjamín Aceval clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.2 8.7 5.8 2.4 1 9.6 13.5 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.2 4.9 2.0 3 3.1 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Capiata down, Benjamín Aceval across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,488 Division Intermedia matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.6% of games this season, across 223 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Capiata at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Benjamín Aceval away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Deportivo Capiata, 1.21 for Benjamín Aceval. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BEN 1–1 DEP

Form · last six in Division Intermedia

DEPORTIVO CAPIATA

WLLLDD4–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

BENJAMÍN ACEVAL

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	General Caballero	28	+22	56
2	Deportivo Santani	28	+20	54
3	12 de Junio VH	28	+9	51
4	Independiente F.b.c.	28	+8	43
5	Benjamín Aceval	27	+7	42
6	Sportivo Carapeguá	28	−5	42
7	SOL DE America	28	+6	41
8	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
9	Resistencia	28	−1	36
10	Atlético Tembetary	28	−6	36
11	Fernando De La Mora	28	−8	34
12	3 de Noviembre	28	−6	29
13	Deportivo Capiata	27	−6	29
14	Guairena FC	28	−13	28
15	Tacuary	28	−15	24
16	Encarnación	28	−15	22