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3 de Noviembre v Fernando De La Mora

3 de Noviembre

3–2Full time

Fernando De La Mora

Division Intermedia · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

3 de Noviembre 3–2 Fernando De La Mora 3 DE NOVIEMBRE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 3 de Noviembre win~~42%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.506

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 3 de Noviembre win at 42%.
4′Much as we predicted: 3 de Noviembre was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
4′KICK-OFF 3 de Noviembre v Fernando De La Mora
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was 3 de Noviembre win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME 3 de Noviembre 0–0 Fernando De La Mora
48′SECOND HALF 3 de Noviembre 0–0 Fernando De La Mora
52′⚽ GOAL · 49' 3 de Noviembre 0–1 Fernando De La Mora
55′Fernando De La Mora find the net on 54′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' 3 de Noviembre 0–2 Fernando De La Mora
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' 3 de Noviembre win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Fernando De La Mora win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' 3 de Noviembre 1–2 Fernando De La Mora
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' 3 de Noviembre 2–2 Fernando De La Mora
FTFULL TIME 3 de Noviembre 3–2 Fernando De La Mora
FT3 de Noviembre 3–2 Fernando De La Mora · 3 de Noviembre win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

3 de Noviembre win42%

Draw29%

Fernando De La Mora win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 3 de noviembre winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

42% The market36%

Us42%

~~Market~~36%

We make 3 de Noviembre a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 3 de noviembre win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
3 de Noviembre win	42%	36%	+6
Draw	29%	29%	0
Fernando De La Mora win	29%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
3 de Noviembre or draw	71%	64%	+6
3 de Noviembre clean sheet	33%	–	–
Fernando De La Mora clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.6 8.4 5.2 1 10.6 13.5 6.9 2.6 2 7.9 8.6 4.7 3 3.6 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+3 de Noviembre down, Fernando De La Mora across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Division Intermedia matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 218 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

3 de Noviembre at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fernando De La Mora away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for 3 de Noviembre, 1.11 for Fernando De La Mora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FER 2–2 DEN

Form · last six in Division Intermedia

3 DE NOVIEMBRE

LWWDWL3–4 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

FERNANDO DE LA MORA

DWLWWL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	27	+21	54
2	General Caballero	27	+21	53
3	12 de Junio VH	27	+9	50
4	Benjamín Aceval	27	+7	42
5	Sportivo Carapeguá	28	−5	42
6	SOL DE America	28	+6	41
7	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
8	Independiente F.b.c.	27	+5	40
9	Atlético Tembetary	27	−3	36
10	Resistencia	27	−1	35
11	Fernando De La Mora	27	−7	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	27	−6	29
13	3 de Noviembre	27	−7	26
14	Guairena FC	27	−14	25
15	Tacuary	28	−15	24
16	Encarnación	27	−14	22