3 de Noviembre v Encarnación prediction · Division Intermedia

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

3 de Noviembre 2–2 Encarnación 3 DE NOVIEMBRE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 3 de Noviembre win~~45%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.808

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 3 de Noviembre win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: 3 de Noviembre 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF 3 de Noviembre v Encarnación
6′3 de Noviembre find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
6′We said 3 de Noviembre at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' 3 de Noviembre 1–0 Encarnación
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' 3 de Noviembre win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–8
40′We said 3 de Noviembre at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' 3 de Noviembre win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
44′A goal for 3 de Noviembre on 43′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
44′We said 3 de Noviembre at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' 3 de Noviembre 2–0 Encarnación
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' 3 de Noviembre win: 45% at kick-off, 94% now
45′HALF-TIME 3 de Noviembre 2–0 Encarnación
46′SECOND HALF 3 de Noviembre 2–0 Encarnación
48′Encarnación score on 47′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 76–18–6
48′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 76–18–6
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' 3 de Noviembre 2–1 Encarnación
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' 3 de Noviembre win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
62′We said 3 de Noviembre at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
73′We said 3 de Noviembre at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' 3 de Noviembre win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
87′We said 3 de Noviembre at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' 3 de Noviembre win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
90′Encarnación find the net on 89′. 2–2. 2–2 · 5–92–4
90′We said 3 de Noviembre at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–2 · 5–92–4
90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 5–92–4
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' 3 de Noviembre 2–2 Encarnación
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' 3 de Noviembre win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was 3 de Noviembre win 96%)
91′We said 3 de Noviembre at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME 3 de Noviembre 2–2 Encarnación
FT3 de Noviembre 2–2 Encarnación · 3 de Noviembre win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

3 de Noviembre are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 3 de Noviembre 45%, draw 27%, Encarnación 28%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on 3 de Noviembre v EncarnaciónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

3 de Noviembre win45%

Draw27%

Encarnación win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

3 de Noviembre

Encarnación

5Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Division Intermedia

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	3 de Noviembre	29	−8	29
16	Encarnación	29	−14	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 3 de noviembre winFirst published 22 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

45% The market34%

Us45%

~~Market~~34%

We make 3 de Noviembre a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 3 de Noviembre v Encarnación~~1.52 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 29 v 25~~13 v 16

~~The market · 3 de Noviembre win~~34% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 3 de Noviembre win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
3 de Noviembre win	45%	34%	+11
Draw	27%	27%	0
Encarnación win	28%	39%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
3 de Noviembre or draw	72%	61%	+11
3 de Noviembre clean sheet	32%	–	–
Encarnación clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.1 7.1 4.6 1 9.6 12.9 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 9.0 5.2 2.0 3 4.0 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+3 de Noviembre down, Encarnación across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Division Intermedia matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 234 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

3 de Noviembre at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Encarnación away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for 3 de Noviembre, 1.15 for Encarnación. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ENC 2–1 DEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 12 Sept

3 DE NOVIEMBRE

WDWLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–2

ENCARNACIÓN

LWLLLW0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	29	+22	57
2	General Caballero	29	+21	56
3	12 de Junio VH	29	+11	54
4	Paraguari AC	30	+7	47
5	SOL DE America	29	+7	44
6	Independiente F.b.c.	30	+5	43
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	30	−6	43
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	+4	42
9	Resistencia	29	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	29	−7	36
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	−3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	29	−10	34
13	3 de Noviembre	29	−8	29
14	Guairena FC	30	−15	29
15	Tacuary	29	−14	27
16	Encarnación	29	−14	25