12 de Junio VH v Guairena FC prediction · Division Intermedia

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 23:00

12 de Junio VH 2–0 Guairena FC 12 DE JUNIO VH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 12 de Junio VH win~~46%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.441

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.256

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 12 de Junio VH win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: 12 de Junio VH was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–31–24
1′KICK-OFF 12 de Junio VH v Guairena FC
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was 12 de Junio VH win 39%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' 12 de Junio VH win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME 12 de Junio VH 0–0 Guairena FC
46′SECOND HALF 12 de Junio VH 0–0 Guairena FC
47′We said 12 de Junio VH at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
57′We said 12 de Junio VH at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' 12 de Junio VH win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
66′We said 12 de Junio VH at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
69′12 de Junio VH score on 69′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–1
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' 12 de Junio VH 1–0 Guairena FC
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' 12 de Junio VH win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' 12 de Junio VH win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 64%)
70′We published 12 de Junio VH at 46%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
76′We published 12 de Junio VH at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
78′12 de Junio VH find the net on 78′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' 12 de Junio VH 2–0 Guairena FC
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' 12 de Junio VH win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
79′We published 12 de Junio VH at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME 12 de Junio VH 2–0 Guairena FC
FT12 de Junio VH 2–0 Guairena FC · 12 de Junio VH win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

12 de Junio VH are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 12 de Junio VH 46%, draw 30%, Guairena FC 24%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on 12 de Junio VH v Guairena FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

12 de Junio VH win46%

Draw30%

Guairena FC win24%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

12 de Junio VH

Guairena FC

8Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Division Intermedia

Last match: 10 Oct · Division Intermedia

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	12 de Junio VH	28	+9	51
14	Guairena FC	28	−13	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 12 de junio vh winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

46% The market59%

Us46%

~~Market~~59%

We make 12 de Junio VH a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 12 de Junio VH v Guairena FC~~1.30 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 51 v 28~~3 v 14

~~The market · 12 de Junio VH win~~59% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 12 de Junio VH win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
12 de Junio VH win	46%	59%	−13
Draw	30%	23%	+7
Guairena FC win	24%	18%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	36%	54%	−18
Both teams to score	42%	52%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	64%	76%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	17%	33%	−16
12 de Junio VH or draw	76%	82%	−6
12 de Junio VH clean sheet	43%	–	–
Guairena FC clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 12.8 9.0 4.3 1 14.2 13.6 5.4 2 9.7 8.2 3.5 3 4.3 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+12 de Junio VH down, Guairena FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 Division Intermedia matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Intermedia matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 227 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

12 de Junio VH at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Guairena FC away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for 12 de Junio VH, 0.85 for Guairena FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~0 of 5

~~Last meetings~~GUA 0–1 DEJ · GUA 0–1 DEJ · DEJ 2–0 GUA · DEJ 2–0 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division Intermedia this season · since 8 Sept

12 DE JUNIO VH

DWLDDD1–1 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

GUAIRENA FC

LLDLLW1–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	General Caballero	28	+22	56
2	Deportivo Santani	28	+20	54
3	12 de Junio VH	28	+9	51
4	SOL DE America	29	+7	44
5	Independiente F.b.c.	28	+8	43
6	Benjamín Aceval	29	+4	42
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	29	−6	42
8	Paraguari AC	28	+3	41
9	Resistencia	29	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	29	−7	36
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	−3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	28	−8	34
13	3 de Noviembre	28	−6	29
14	Guairena FC	28	−13	28
15	Tacuary	28	−15	24
16	Encarnación	28	−15	22