Sportivo Luqueno v Deportivo Recoleta prediction · Copa Paraguay

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sportivo LuquenoDrawDeportivo Recoleta

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Recoleta 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Deportivo Recoleta just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportivo Luqueno 35%, draw 27%, Deportivo Recoleta 38%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sportivo Luqueno v Deportivo RecoletaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sportivo Luqueno win35%

Draw27%

Deportivo Recoleta win38%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 22:30

RoundQuarter-finals

VenueEstadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportivo Luqueno

Deportivo Recoleta

5Days since last match12

Last match: 23 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

Last match: 16 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausura

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo recoleta winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Deportivo Recoleta a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sportivo Luqueno v Deportivo Recoleta~~1.27 – 1.34

~~Form · Copa Paraguay this season · since 19 Aug~~W1 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportivo Luqueno win	35%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Deportivo Recoleta win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Sportivo Luqueno or draw	62%	–	–
Sportivo Luqueno clean sheet	26%	–	–
Deportivo Recoleta clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.1 9.3 6.6 3.0 1 8.8 13.0 8.3 3.7 2 6.0 7.9 5.2 2.3 3 2.5 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Luqueno down, Deportivo Recoleta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 749 Division Profesional - Apertura matches up to 24 May 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division Profesional - Apertura matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.7% of games this season, across 131 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 1.86 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportivo Luqueno at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Recoleta away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Sportivo Luqueno, 1.34 for Deportivo Recoleta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–0 DEP · SPO 2–1 DEP · DEP 1–2 SPO · DEP 2–3 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Paraguay this season · since 19 Aug

SPORTIVO LUQUENO

WD2–0 · 1–1

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA

WW2–0 · 3–1

Sportivo Luqueno v Deportivo Recoleta

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

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Rest & schedule

Sportivo Luqueno

Deportivo Recoleta

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Copa Paraguay this season · since 19 Aug