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Atlético Tembetary v SOL DE America

Atlético Tembetary
2–3Full time
SOL DE America

Copa Paraguay · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 23:35
Atlético Tembetary 2–3 SOL DE America SOL DE AMERICA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SOL DE America win36%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.618
The market’s Brier score0.558

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 60 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SOL DE America win at 36%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Tembetary 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–37
  3. 3′Atlético Tembetary find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–21–16
  4. 5′We said Atlético Tembetary at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 1–0 · 64–21–16
  5. 15′We said Atlético Tembetary at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
  6. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–11
  7. 44′We said Atlético Tembetary at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–22–9
  8. 46′Atlético Tembetary ahead on 1′ through M. Silvero. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–8
  9. 52′SOL DE America are down to ten from 53′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 72–21–7
  10. 52′🟥 RED CARD · 53' SOL DE America
  11. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SOL DE America · On: F. Ortellado · Off: J. Gonzalez
  12. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SOL DE America · On: J. D. Mora Garcia · Off: A. Silva
  13. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' SOL DE America
  14. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SOL DE America · On: M. Gaona · Off: E. Kovacs
  15. 53′🟥 RED CARD · 53' F. Ortellado · SOL DE America
  16. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' C. Villagra · SOL DE America
  17. 55′We said Atlético Tembetary at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  18. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Atlético Tembetary 2–0 SOL DE America · M. Silvero
  19. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' SOL DE America win: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
  20. 57′A goal for Atlético Tembetary on 56′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  21. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' SOL DE America
  22. 59′We said Atlético Tembetary at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  23. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Atlético Tembetary
  24. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' SOL DE America
  25. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Tembetary · On: G. Galarza · Off: C. Mercado
  26. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Tembetary · On: S. Santacruz · Off: M. Silvero
  27. 73′74′ and it is 2–1: SOL DE America have scored. 2–1 · 82–16–2
  28. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Atlético Tembetary 2–1 SOL DE America
  29. 76′We said Atlético Tembetary at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–1
  30. 77′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 86–13–1
  31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SOL DE America · On: B. Fernandez · Off: G. Manzur
  32. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SOL DE America · On: J. Rivarola · Off: V. Arguello
  33. 80′We said Atlético Tembetary at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–2 · 12–76–12
  34. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Atlético Tembetary 2–2 SOL DE America · C. Villagra
  35. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' SOL DE America win: 36% at kick-off, 12% now
  36. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Atlético Tembetary win 12%)
  37. 82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 10–80–10
  38. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 31' A. Silva · SOL DE America
  39. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SOL DE America · On: M. Gaona · Off: E. Kovacs
  40. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SOL DE America · On: F. Ortellado · Off: J. Gonzalez
  41. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SOL DE America · On: J. D. Mora Garcia · Off: A. Silva
  42. 82′🟥 RED CARD · 53' F. Ortellado · SOL DE America
  43. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 53' C. Villagra · SOL DE America
  44. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 59' SOL DE America
  45. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Atlético Tembetary
  46. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 64' SOL DE America
  47. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Tembetary · On: G. Galarza · Off: C. Mercado
  48. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Tembetary · On: S. Santacruz · Off: M. Silvero
  49. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SOL DE America · On: B. Fernandez · Off: G. Manzur
  50. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SOL DE America · On: J. Rivarola · Off: V. Arguello
  51. 84′SOL DE America level it on 81′ through J. D. Mora Garcia. 2–2. 2–2 · 8–85–8
  52. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atlético Tembetary · On: D. Martinez · Off: F. Esteche
  53. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atlético Tembetary · On: A. Paredes · Off: L. Rolon
  54. 86′We said Atlético Tembetary at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 7–87–7
  55. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' SOL DE America win: 36% at kick-off, 5% now
  56. 90′We said Atlético Tembetary at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
  57. 92′A red card for Atlético Tembetary on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–2 · 3–94–3
  58. 92′🟥 RED CARD · 92' SOL DE America
  59. 92′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Atlético Tembetary
  60. 93′A goal for SOL DE America on 90′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–2–98
  61. 93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Atlético Tembetary 2–3 SOL DE America · J. D. Mora Garcia
  62. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 31' A. Silva · SOL DE America
  63. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SOL DE America · On: J. D. Mora Garcia · Off: A. Silva
  64. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SOL DE America · On: F. Ortellado · Off: J. Gonzalez
  65. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SOL DE America · On: M. Gaona · Off: E. Kovacs
  66. 93′🟥 RED CARD · 53' F. Ortellado · SOL DE America
  67. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 53' C. Villagra · SOL DE America
  68. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 59' SOL DE America
  69. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Atlético Tembetary
  70. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 64' SOL DE America
  71. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Tembetary · On: G. Galarza · Off: C. Mercado
  72. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Tembetary · On: S. Santacruz · Off: M. Silvero
  73. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SOL DE America · On: B. Fernandez · Off: G. Manzur
  74. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SOL DE America · On: J. Rivarola · Off: V. Arguello
  75. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atlético Tembetary · On: D. Martinez · Off: F. Esteche
  76. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atlético Tembetary · On: A. Paredes · Off: L. Rolon
  77. 93′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Atlético Tembetary
  78. 93′🟥 RED CARD · 93' R. F. Vera Encina · Atlético Tembetary
  79. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' SOL DE America win: 36% at kick-off, 98% now
  80. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' SOL DE America win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  81. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Atlético Tembetary · On: A. Caballero · Off: A. Cristaldo
  82. FTFULL TIME Atlético Tembetary 2–3 SOL DE America
  83. FTAtlético Tembetary 2–3 SOL DE America · SOL DE America win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with SOL DE America just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Tembetary 36%, draw 28%, SOL DE America 36%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Tembetary v SOL DE AmericaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 20:33 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Tembetary win36%
Draw28%
SOL DE America win36%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 21:00

Line-ups

Atlético Tembetary

SOL DE America

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atlético Tembetary

SOL DE America

20Days since last match22
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1SOL DE America2+56
3Atlético Tembetary2+36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlético Tembetary

Formation not confirmed

12 E. Ortellado

2 L. Caceres

7 F. Esteche

8 R. F. Vera Encina

11 A. Cristaldo

15 B. Diaz

19 M. Silvero

22 V. Barrios

28 C. Mercado

32 L. Rolon

40 D. Zarate

Coach · Lionel Diaz Cristian

Substitutes

1 · L. Mendez

3 · A. Meza

5 · J. Cardozo

9 · F. Alarcon

16 · D. Martinez

17 · G. Galarza

18 · A. Caballero

20 · S. Ruiz Diaz

21 · A. Paredes

26 · C. Batte

30 · S. Santacruz

38 · A. Villalba

SOL DE America

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Piotti

2 R. O. Duarte Irala

4 W. Ibarrola

6 G. Manzur

8 V. Arguello

11 E. Kovacs

18 F. S. Leguizamon Samudio

19 A. Silva

22 J. Gonzalez

27 C. Villagra

33 V. Benitez

Coach · H. Núñez

Substitutes

21 · T. Schwarz

3 · F. Ortellado

7 · J. Rivarola

9 · S. Bareiro

10 · J. D. Mora Garcia

14 · J. Jimenez

17 · B. Fernandez

23 · S. Formigli

24 · J. Patino Martinez

25 · G. Marecos

26 · M. Gaona

28 · A. Martinez

Our number · sol de america winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 20:33 · locked at kick-off
36% The market39%
Us36%
Market39%

We make SOL DE America a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atlético Tembetary v SOL DE America1.30 – 1.30
Last six in Copa ParaguayW2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 6 v 63 v 1
The market · SOL DE America win39% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 18:41
Our probability · sol de america win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atlético Tembetary win36%33%+3
Draw28%28%0
SOL DE America win36%39%−3
Over 2.5 goals48%49%−1
Both teams to score53%55%−2
Over 1.5 goals74%73%+1
Over 3.5 goals27%29%−2
Atlético Tembetary or draw64%61%+3
Atlético Tembetary clean sheet28%––
SOL DE America clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 8.6 8.7 6.3 2.8 1 8.7 13.3 8.0 3.5 2 6.3 8.0 5.2 2.3 3 2.8 3.5 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Tembetary down, SOL DE America across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsATL 1–1 SOL

Form · last six in Copa Paraguay

ATLÉTICO TEMBETARY

DLLWWL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–3

SOL DE AMERICA

LWLWDL0–1 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–4

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1SOL DE America2+56
2Deportivo Recoleta2+46
3Atlético Tembetary2+36
4Cerro Porteno2+26
5Fernando De La Mora2+34
6Olimpia2+24
7Nacional Asuncion2+24
8Sportivo Luqueno2+24
9Club Sp. San Lorenzo2+14
10Independiente F.b.c.2+14
114 de Mayo203
122 de Mayo2−13
13Guairena FC2−13
14Sportivo Iteno2−13
15Libertad Asuncion202
16General Caballero101
1729 de Septiembre FBC101
18Tacuary101
19Rubio NU2−11
201 de Marzo Pilar1−10
2112 de Octubre1−10
22Fulgencio Yegros1−10
23Club Guarani1−10
24Sportivo Trinidense1−10
25Resistencia1−10
26Sportivo Ameliano1−10
27Cristóbal Colón JAS1−20
28Benjamín Aceval1−20
29Deportivo Santani1−20
30Paraguari AC1−20
31Humaitá1−30
32Deportivo Obrero1−30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.