UMECIT v Alianza FC prediction · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 03:00

UMECIT 2–1 Alianza FC UMECIT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UMECIT win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.571

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UMECIT win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: UMECIT was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–31–30
1′KICK-OFF UMECIT v Alianza FC
8′UMECIT find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' UMECIT 1–0 Alianza FC
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' UMECIT win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
9′We published UMECIT at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Alianza FC
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
35′A red card for Alianza FC on 34′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 73–20–7
35′🟥 RED CARD · 34' Alianza FC
44′We published UMECIT at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME UMECIT 1–0 Alianza FC
45′SECOND HALF UMECIT 1–0 Alianza FC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 41' UMECIT · On: A. Edwards · Off: E. Gomez
47′A goal for UMECIT on 46′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' UMECIT 2–0 Alianza FC
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' UMECIT win: 38% at kick-off, 94% now
48′We published UMECIT at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' UMECIT
66′Alianza FC score on 65′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–2
66′We published UMECIT at 38%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–2
66′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–16–2
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' UMECIT win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' UMECIT 2–1 Alianza FC
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' UMECIT win: 38% at kick-off, 82% now
72′We published UMECIT at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' UMECIT
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' UMECIT win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
79′We published UMECIT at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' UMECIT
87′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Alianza FC · On: G. Rangel · Off: G. Chiari Corrected
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' UMECIT win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' UMECIT
94′SUBSTITUTION · 85' UMECIT · On: Avila · Off: N. M. Anderson Gomez Corrected
FTFULL TIME UMECIT 2–1 Alianza FC
FTUMECIT 2–1 Alianza FC · UMECIT win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UMECIT are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UMECIT 38%, draw 31%, Alianza FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on UMECIT v Alianza FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

UMECIT win38%

Draw31%

Alianza FC win30%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:15

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Line-ups

UMECIT

Alianza FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UMECIT

Alianza FC

15Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	UMECIT	11	+1	16
7	Alianza FC	11	+1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

UMECIT

Formation not confirmed

65 L. Lazo

14 R. Ford

23 E. Chanis

27 A. Garcia

62 M. Casazola

6 J. Fuentes

10 E. Gomez

21 O. Almanza

70 N. M. Anderson Gomez

19 A. Saldana

47 B. Valderrama

Coach · Julio Infante

Substitutes

1 · D. Almengor

2 · C. Noville

9 · J. Murillo

11 · E. Rodriguez

17 · A. Edwards

26 · J. Araya

77 · A. Diaz

92 · D. Oliveira

22 · A. Palmezano

20 · R. Avila

Alianza FC

Formation not confirmed

12 J. Gonzalez

23 J. Marquinez

21 E. Tello

18 R. Perdomo

15 A. Galvez

5 O. Campos

17 J. Asprilla

16 R. Mitre

11 D. Spencer

10 G. Chiari

9 B. Walters

Coach · Jair Palacios

Substitutes

1 · J. Lopez Giraldo

2 · F. Landazuri

6 · J. Marengo

8 · G. Rangel

26 · J. Garces

19 · D. Vargas

28 · J. Alvarado

31 · A. Machado

40 · C. Rodriguez

51 · D. Carvajal

Our number · umecit winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make UMECIT a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UMECIT v Alianza FC~~1.19 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~5 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UMECIT win	38%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Alianza FC win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
UMECIT or draw	70%	–	–
UMECIT clean sheet	36%	–	–
Alianza FC clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.3 9.9 5.8 2.0 1 11.6 14.3 6.7 2.4 2 7.6 7.8 4.0 3 3.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UMECIT down, Alianza FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,200 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 171 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UMECIT at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for UMECIT, 1.04 for Alianza FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALI 1–0 UME · ALI 0–0 UME · UME 1–1 ALI · ALI 2–1 UME

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 30 Aug

UMECIT

DWWWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

ALIANZA FC

DDLDWL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	12	+12	27
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	12	+6	22
4	Veraguas	12	0	18
5	UMECIT	11	+1	16
6	Tauro FC	11	+3	14
7	Alianza FC	11	+1	14
8	Independiente de La Chorrera	12	0	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	11	−1	13
10	Deportivo Universitario	12	−3	11
11	Herrera	11	−15	8
12	Union Cocle	11	−13	5