Sporting San Miguelito v Tauro FC prediction · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 04:30

Sporting San Miguelito 0–2 Tauro FC SPORTING SAN MIGUELITO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting San Miguelito win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.729

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.638

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting San Miguelito win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting San Miguelito 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
1′KICK-OFF Sporting San Miguelito v Tauro FC
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Sporting San Miguelito
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sporting San Miguelito win 36%)
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Sporting San Miguelito
45′HALF-TIME Sporting San Miguelito 0–0 Tauro FC
45′SECOND HALF Sporting San Miguelito 0–0 Tauro FC
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting San Miguelito · On: C. Hormechea · Off: O. Alba
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting San Miguelito · On: R. Benitez · Off: H. Hurtado
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Sporting San Miguelito win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
56′We said Sporting San Miguelito at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–50–23
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Sporting San Miguelito
62′We said Sporting San Miguelito at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–20
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Tauro FC
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sporting San Miguelito · On: M. Avila · Off: J. Castillo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tauro FC · On: D. Pinzon · Off: J. Barria
68′A goal for Tauro FC on 68′. 0–0 · 21–61–18
68′We said Sporting San Miguelito at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–18–79
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sporting San Miguelito 0–1 Tauro FC
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Sporting San Miguelito win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Tauro FC win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 61%)
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Sporting San Miguelito
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sporting San Miguelito · On: A. Castillo · Off: L. Zuniga
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tauro FC · On: J. Figueroa · Off: J. Insturain
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tauro FC · On: A. Diaz · Off: C. Quintero
88′Tauro FC find the net on 88′. 0–1 · 0–5–95
88′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Sporting San Miguelito 0–2 Tauro FC
93′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tauro FC · On: B. Perez · Off: L. Asprilla
93′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tauro FC · On: M. Prado · Off: G. Quiroz
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Tauro FC
FTFULL TIME Sporting San Miguelito 0–2 Tauro FC
FTSporting San Miguelito 0–2 Tauro FC · Sporting San Miguelito win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting San Miguelito are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting San Miguelito 39%, draw 30%, Tauro FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Sporting San Miguelito v Tauro FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Sporting San Miguelito win39%

Draw30%

Tauro FC win30%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Los Andes II

Line-ups

Sporting San Miguelito

Tauro FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting San Miguelito

Tauro FC

14Days since last match17

Last match: 6 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Tauro FC	11	+3	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	11	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting San Miguelito

Formation not confirmed

12 M. De Leon

25 J. Munoz

31 O. Alba

14 J. Hall

69 S. Dominguez

27 R. Tello Valor

20 A. Bethancourt

6 L. Heraldez

23 H. Hurtado

29 J. Castillo

11 L. Zuniga

Coach · Cesar Aguilar

Substitutes

5 · E. Arizala

24 · C. Hormechea

8 · A. Cordoba

13 · M. Azcarate

26 · E. Brown

55 · R. Benitez

2 · J. Caicedo

9 · E. Zorrilla

19 · M. Avila

53 · A. Castillo

Tauro FC

Formation not confirmed

12 J. Guerra

2 L. Asprilla

3 E. Gondola

40 G. Quiroz

5 K. Quintero

6 K. Bernal

22 I. Hernandez

51 J. Insturain

10 C. Quintero

23 J. Penalba

18 J. Barria

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Vargas

4 · A. Diaz

7 · D. Pinzon

15 · J. Figueroa

17 · W. Cabrera

20 · B. Perez

29 · J. Munoz

41 · R. Williams

52 · M. Prado

19 · K. Hurtado

Our number · sporting san miguelito winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Sporting San Miguelito a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting San Miguelito v Tauro FC~~1.26 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 14~~9 v 6

~~The market · Sporting San Miguelito win~~36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting San Miguelito win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting San Miguelito win	39%	36%	+3
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Tauro FC win	30%	35%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	48%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	54%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−7
Sporting San Miguelito or draw	70%	65%	+5
Sporting San Miguelito clean sheet	34%	–	–
Tauro FC clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.3 9.2 5.6 2.1 1 10.9 14.1 6.9 2.5 2 7.6 8.0 4.3 3 3.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting San Miguelito down, Tauro FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,203 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 174 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting San Miguelito at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tauro FC away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Sporting San Miguelito, 1.08 for Tauro FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TAU 0–0 SPO · SPO 2–0 TAU · TAU 0–0 SPO · TAU 0–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 29 Aug

SPORTING SAN MIGUELITO

WDLLDW3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 3–1

TAURO FC

WWWWLL2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 6–0 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	12	+12	27
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	12	+6	22
4	UMECIT	12	+2	19
5	Veraguas	12	0	18
6	Tauro FC	11	+3	14
7	Independiente de La Chorrera	12	0	14
8	Alianza FC	12	0	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	11	−1	13
10	Deportivo Universitario	12	−3	11
11	Herrera	12	−14	11
12	Union Cocle	12	−14	5