San Francisco FC v Deportivo Universitario prediction · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 05:01

San Francisco FC 1–0 Deportivo Universitario SAN FRANCISCO FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Francisco FC win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.400

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.436

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Francisco FC win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF San Francisco FC v Deportivo Universitario
2′Little has changed for our model: San Francisco FC 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–23
30′We said San Francisco FC at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–6
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' San Francisco FC 1–0 Deportivo Universitario
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' San Francisco FC win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
32′A goal for San Francisco FC on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–6
33′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' San Francisco FC win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Deportivo Universitario
45′SECOND HALF San Francisco FC 1–0 Deportivo Universitario
46′HALF-TIME San Francisco FC 1–0 Deportivo Universitario
50′We said San Francisco FC at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' San Francisco FC
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Deportivo Universitario
68′We said San Francisco FC at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Universitario · On: J. Bernal · Off: J. Simons
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Deportivo Universitario · On: R. Herrera · Off: A. De Los Rios
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' San Francisco FC
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Deportivo Universitario
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' San Francisco FC win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
78′We said San Francisco FC at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′We said San Francisco FC at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Francisco FC · On: E. Carrasquilla · Off: A. Popoff
86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Francisco FC · On: J. Lopez · Off: V. Pimentel
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Deportivo Universitario · On: A. Betegon · Off: J. Gondola
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' San Francisco FC · On: S. Palacios · Off: K. Bonilla
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' San Francisco FC · On: J. Mendez · Off: O. Browne
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Deportivo Universitario · On: J. Ampudia · Off: J. Clarke
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Deportivo Universitario · On: D. Edmund · Off: M. Acosta
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' San Francisco FC · On: S. Moreno · Off: R. Dinolis
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' San Francisco FC win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' San Francisco FC
FTFULL TIME San Francisco FC 1–0 Deportivo Universitario
FTSan Francisco FC 1–0 Deportivo Universitario · San Francisco FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Francisco FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Francisco FC 48%, draw 28%, Deportivo Universitario 23%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on San Francisco FC v Deportivo UniversitarioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

San Francisco FC win48%

Draw28%

Deportivo Universitario win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 02:30

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Line-ups

San Francisco FC

Deportivo Universitario

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Francisco FC

Deportivo Universitario

14Days since last match13

Last match: 3 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	San Francisco FC	11	+8	20
10	Deportivo Universitario	11	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

San Francisco FC

Formation not confirmed

12 J. Frias

30 R. Peralta

35 J. Wood

14 K. Galvan

20 V. Pimentel

18 R. Rodriguez

38 A. Popoff

27 V. Simmons

9 R. Dinolis

7 K. Bonilla

5 O. Browne

Coach · Dely Valdes Jorge

Substitutes

21 · I. Flores

3 · S. Moreno

31 · V. Simmons

8 · E. Carrasquilla

11 · J. Mendez

13 · R. French

15 · A. Saldana

99 · J. Lopez

16 · S. Palacios

22 · Calderon Kevin

Deportivo Universitario

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Cao

27 I. Anderson

6 J. Matos

5 J. Tobon

2 J. Garcia

18 M. Acosta

8 J. Clarke

25 A. De Los Rios

20 U. Maltez

19 J. Simons

26 J. Gondola

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · A. De la Cruz

22 · D. Edmund

23 · J. Ampudia

10 · J. Bernal

24 · R. Rangel

31 · R. Herrera

13 · A. Betegon

14 · J. Asprilla

15 · M. Vergara

Our number · san francisco fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make San Francisco FC a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Francisco FC v Deportivo Universitario~~1.53 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 11~~3 v 10

~~The market · San Francisco FC win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Francisco FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Francisco FC win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Deportivo Universitario win	23%	26%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	47%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
San Francisco FC or draw	77%	74%	+3
San Francisco FC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Deportivo Universitario clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.7 6.9 4.0 1 11.2 13.2 5.9 2 9.3 9.0 4.4 3 4.8 4.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Francisco FC down, Deportivo Universitario across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,198 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Francisco FC at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Universitario away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for San Francisco FC, 0.98 for Deportivo Universitario. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–2 SAN · SAN 5–2 DEP · DEP 3–3 SAN · DEP 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 29 Aug

SAN FRANCISCO FC

WDWLWL4–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–1

DEPORTIVO UNIVERSITARIO

DDLDWL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	11	+10	24
2	CD Arabe Unido	11	+8	22
3	San Francisco FC	11	+8	20
4	Veraguas	11	+2	18
5	UMECIT	11	+1	16
6	Tauro FC	11	+3	14
7	Alianza FC	11	+1	14
8	Sporting San Miguelito	11	−1	13
9	Independiente de La Chorrera	11	−2	11
10	Deportivo Universitario	11	−2	11
11	Herrera	11	−15	8
12	Union Cocle	11	−13	5