Plaza Amador v Sporting San Miguelito prediction · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Plaza AmadorDrawSporting San Miguelito

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Plaza Amador 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Plaza Amador are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Plaza Amador 57%, draw 25%, Sporting San Miguelito 19%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Plaza Amador v Sporting San MiguelitoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Plaza Amador win57%

Draw25%

Sporting San Miguelito win19%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plaza Amador

Sporting San Miguelito

6Days since last match11

Last match: 25 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · plaza amador winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Plaza Amador a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Plaza Amador v Sporting San Miguelito~~1.85 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 13~~1 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plaza Amador win	57%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Sporting San Miguelito win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Plaza Amador or draw	81%	–	–
Plaza Amador clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sporting San Miguelito clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.4 4.9 2.9 1 10.2 11.6 5.1 2 10.1 9.5 4.6 3 6.3 5.9 2.8 4 3.0 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plaza Amador down, Sporting San Miguelito across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,206 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plaza Amador at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting San Miguelito away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Plaza Amador, 0.96 for Sporting San Miguelito. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–2 PLA · SPO 0–3 PLA · PLA 0–3 SPO · SPO 1–1 PLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 5 Sept

PLAZA AMADOR

DDWWWW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

SPORTING SAN MIGUELITO

DLLDWL1–1 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	13	+13	30
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	13	+6	23
4	UMECIT	13	+2	20
5	Veraguas	12	0	18
6	Tauro FC	13	+4	17
7	Independiente de La Chorrera	13	+1	17
8	Alianza FC	12	0	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	12	−3	13
10	Deportivo Universitario	13	−4	11
11	Herrera	12	−14	11
12	Union Cocle	12	−14	5