Plaza Amador v CD Arabe Unido prediction · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 05:01

Plaza Amador 2–0 CD Arabe Unido PLAZA AMADOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plaza Amador win~~53%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.330

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.368

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plaza Amador win at 53%.
1′KICK-OFF Plaza Amador v CD Arabe Unido
2′Little has changed for our model: Plaza Amador 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Plaza Amador win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′We said Plaza Amador at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–4
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Plaza Amador 1–0 CD Arabe Unido
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Plaza Amador win: 53% at kick-off, 80% now
47′Plaza Amador find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–4
47′SECOND HALF Plaza Amador 1–0 CD Arabe Unido
48′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–4
48′HALF-TIME Plaza Amador 1–0 CD Arabe Unido
57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CD Arabe Unido · On: R. Burgess · Off: R. Graham
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Plaza Amador win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Plaza Amador
68′We said Plaza Amador at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Plaza Amador
69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Plaza Amador · On: F. Cordoba · Off: J. Murillo
77′SUBSTITUTION · 64' CD Arabe Unido · On: J. Filos · Off: O. Llerena
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Plaza Amador
79′We said Plaza Amador at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Plaza Amador · On: H. Rios · Off: J. Sanchez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Plaza Amador · On: K. Walder · Off: K. Walters
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Plaza Amador win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Plaza Amador
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' CD Arabe Unido
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Plaza Amador · On: A. Quintero · Off: E. Rose
85′We said Plaza Amador at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Plaza Amador · On: A. Ryce · Off: D. Murillo
89′🟨 YELLOW · 86' CD Arabe Unido
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Plaza Amador
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' A. Quintero · Plaza Amador
92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' CD Arabe Unido · On: A. Collymore · Off: O. Reefer
95′We said Plaza Amador at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Plaza Amador 2–0 CD Arabe Unido
97′2–0 at the end. Our 53% on Plaza Amador comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' CD Arabe Unido
FTFULL TIME Plaza Amador 2–0 CD Arabe Unido
FTPlaza Amador 2–0 CD Arabe Unido · Plaza Amador win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Plaza Amador are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Plaza Amador 53%, draw 26%, CD Arabe Unido 21%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Plaza Amador v CD Arabe UnidoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Plaza Amador win53%

Draw26%

CD Arabe Unido win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:30

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Line-ups

Plaza Amador

3-4-3

CD Arabe Unido

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plaza Amador

CD Arabe Unido

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 5 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Plaza Amador

3-4-3

45 E. Lozano

18 J. Rodriguez

4 J. Sanchez

3 O. Cordoba

21 D. Murillo

20 J. Murillo

16 R. Yearwood

14 A. Knight

22 K. Walters

13 E. Rose

7 J. Sanchez

Coach · Mario Mendez

Substitutes

1 · S. Castaneda

12 · J. Taivez

27 · H. Rios

31 · E. Davis

5 · F. Cordoba

15 · Y. Murillo

17 · A. Valencia

19 · A. Quintero

25 · K. Walder

30 · A. Ryce

CD Arabe Unido

4-5-1

12 K. Mosquera

3 O. Llerena

14 C. Dupuy

94 G. Chara

19 J. Harrison

26 O. Reefer

47 R. Graham

13 A. Cooper

20 R. Collymore

8 M. Breary

10 A. Palacios

Coach · Juan Guzman

Substitutes

90 · A. Collymore

35 · J. Jimenez

99 · R. Burgess

28 · J. Filos

27 · M. Ceballos

16 · Jimenez Abdiel

18 · O. Penalba

11 · F. McClean

7 · J. Espada

1 · R. Polo

Our number · plaza amador winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

53% The market51%

Us53%

~~Market~~51%

We make Plaza Amador a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Plaza Amador v CD Arabe Unido~~1.73 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 24 v 22~~1 v 3

~~The market · Plaza Amador win~~51% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Plaza Amador win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plaza Amador win	53%	51%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
CD Arabe Unido win	21%	22%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	47%	+4
Both teams to score	52%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	71%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	27%	+2
Plaza Amador or draw	79%	78%	+1
Plaza Amador clean sheet	37%	–	–
CD Arabe Unido clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.0 5.6 3.3 1 10.3 12.2 5.5 2 9.7 9.4 4.7 3 5.6 5.5 2.7 4 2.5 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plaza Amador down, CD Arabe Unido across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,199 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plaza Amador at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). CD Arabe Unido away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Plaza Amador, 1.00 for CD Arabe Unido. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CDA 2–2 PLA · CDA 0–3 PLA · PLA 1–0 CDA · PLA 0–2 CDA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 29 Aug

PLAZA AMADOR

LWDDWW1–4 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

CD ARABE UNIDO

DWWWWD0–0 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	11	+10	24
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	11	+8	22
4	Veraguas	11	+2	18
5	UMECIT	11	+1	16
6	Tauro FC	11	+3	14
7	Alianza FC	11	+1	14
8	Sporting San Miguelito	11	−1	13
9	Independiente de La Chorrera	11	−2	11
10	Deportivo Universitario	12	−3	11
11	Herrera	11	−15	8
12	Union Cocle	11	−13	5