Independiente de La Chorrera v Veraguas prediction · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:01

Independiente de La Chorrera 3–1 Veraguas INDEPENDIENTE DE LA CHORRERA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente de La Chorrera win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.416

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente de La Chorrera win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Independiente de La Chorrera was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Independiente de La Chorrera v Veraguas
5′Independiente de La Chorrera score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–15–11
5′We published Independiente de La Chorrera at 47%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–15–11
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Independiente de La Chorrera 1–0 Veraguas
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Independiente de La Chorrera win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
8′6′: M. Ruiz on the scoresheet for Independiente de La Chorrera, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–11
18′Independiente de La Chorrera find the net on 16′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
18′⚽ GOAL · 16' Independiente de La Chorrera 2–0 Veraguas
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Independiente de La Chorrera win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
20′We published Independiente de La Chorrera at 47%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–3
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Veraguas
31′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Veraguas · On: N. Zuniga · Off: C. Rivera
32′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Veraguas · On: S. Wynter · Off: E. Ceballos
39′A red card for Veraguas on 37′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 93–6–2
39′🟨 YELLOW · 36' M. Ruiz · Independiente de La Chorrera
39′🟥 RED CARD · 37' Veraguas
40′A goal for Independiente de La Chorrera on 39′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Independiente de La Chorrera 3–0 Veraguas
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Independiente de La Chorrera win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
41′We published Independiente de La Chorrera at 47%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Independiente de La Chorrera
45′HALF-TIME Independiente de La Chorrera 3–0 Veraguas
48′SECOND HALF Independiente de La Chorrera 3–0 Veraguas
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Independiente de La Chorrera · On: K. J. Angulo Garces · Off: A. Cifuentes
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Veraguas
61′We published Independiente de La Chorrera at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Veraguas · On: R. de Leon · Off: E. Lopez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Veraguas · On: A. Rodriguez · Off: M. Camargo
69′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Independiente de La Chorrera
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Independiente de La Chorrera
76′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Independiente de La Chorrera · On: A. Valverde · Off: A. Altamirano
76′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Independiente de La Chorrera · On: M. Moran · Off: E. Giron
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Independiente de La Chorrera · On: J. Gonzalez · Off: J. Giron
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Veraguas · On: A. Pinzon · Off: F. Gomez
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Veraguas
80′Veraguas score on 80′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Independiente de La Chorrera
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Independiente de La Chorrera 3–1 Veraguas
82′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Independiente de La Chorrera · On: B. Waterman · Off: M. Ruiz
96′Veraguas are down to nine from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+6' Veraguas
FTFULL TIME Independiente de La Chorrera 3–1 Veraguas
FTIndependiente de La Chorrera 3–1 Veraguas · Independiente de La Chorrera win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente de La Chorrera are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Independiente de La Chorrera 47%, draw 26%, Veraguas 26%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Independiente de La Chorrera v VeraguasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Independiente de La Chorrera win47%

Draw26%

Veraguas win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:15

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Line-ups

Independiente de La Chorrera

Veraguas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Independiente de La Chorrera

Veraguas

13Days since last match14

Last match: 5 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 4 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Veraguas	11	+2	18
9	Independiente de La Chorrera	11	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Independiente de La Chorrera

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Rodriguez

13 G. Negrete

4 D. Fori

52 A. Cifuentes

27 A. Morales

18 E. Giron

43 V. Gomez

15 J. Giron

28 M. Ruiz

7 A. Altamirano

24 J. Obando

Coach · –

Substitutes

83 · G. Leon

5 · K. J. Angulo Garces

74 · R. Reyes

6 · M. Moran

10 · J. Gonzalez

11 · A. Valverde

16 · O. Berrocal

22 · B. Waterman

19 · D. Petit

25 · D. Contreras

Veraguas

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Araya

3 W. Munoz

30 A. Cedeno

2 E. Ceballos

14 L. Torres

15 F. Gomez

5 L. Villarreal

7 M. Camargo

23 E. Lopez

17 C. Rivera

29 C. Hernandez

Coach · Felipe Borowsky

Substitutes

12 · E. Toribio

22 · S. Wynter

21 · N. Zuniga

16 · R. Zuniga

18 · A. Rodriguez

11 · J. Sagel

10 · A. Pinzon

60 · D. Reinoso

9 · G. Torres

19 · R. de Leon

Our number · independiente de la chorrera winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Independiente de La Chorrera a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Independiente de La Chorrera v Veraguas~~1.68 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 18~~9 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente de La Chorrera win	47%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Veraguas win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Independiente de La Chorrera or draw	74%	–	–
Independiente de La Chorrera clean sheet	31%	–	–
Veraguas clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.1 5.7 4.1 1 8.4 12.3 6.6 2.7 2 7.9 9.2 5.5 2.2 3 4.4 5.2 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente de La Chorrera down, Veraguas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,198 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 6 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente de La Chorrera at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Veraguas away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Independiente de La Chorrera, 1.20 for Veraguas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VER 1–1 IND · VER 1–0 IND · IND 1–0 VER · IND 3–0 VER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 29 Aug

INDEPENDIENTE DE LA CHORRERA

LLDWLD1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

VERAGUAS

DLWDDW1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	11	+10	24
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	11	+8	22
4	Veraguas	11	+2	18
5	UMECIT	11	+1	16
6	Tauro FC	11	+3	14
7	Alianza FC	11	+1	14
8	Sporting San Miguelito	11	−1	13
9	Independiente de La Chorrera	11	−2	11
10	Deportivo Universitario	12	−3	11
11	Herrera	11	−15	8
12	Union Cocle	11	−13	5