Independiente de La Chorrera v San Francisco FC prediction · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Independiente de La Chorrera are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Independiente de La Chorrera 42%, draw 28%, San Francisco FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Independiente de La Chorrera v San Francisco FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · postponed, not graded

Independiente de La Chorrera win42%

Draw28%

San Francisco FC win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:30

RoundApertura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Independiente de La Chorrera

San Francisco FC

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
7	Independiente de La Chorrera	12	0	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · independiente de la chorrera winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · postponed, not graded

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Independiente de La Chorrera a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Independiente de La Chorrera v San Francisco FC~~1.46 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 23~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente de La Chorrera win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
San Francisco FC win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Independiente de La Chorrera or draw	70%	–	–
Independiente de La Chorrera clean sheet	31%	–	–
San Francisco FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.5 7.3 5.0 2.0 1 9.1 13.2 7.2 2.9 2 7.5 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.7 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente de La Chorrera down, San Francisco FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,204 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente de La Chorrera at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Francisco FC away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Independiente de La Chorrera, 1.20 for San Francisco FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–1 IND · IND 0–0 SAN · SAN 0–3 IND · IND 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 6 Sept

INDEPENDIENTE DE LA CHORRERA

LDWLDW0–2 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

SAN FRANCISCO FC

DWLWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	12	+12	27
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	12	+6	22
4	UMECIT	12	+2	19
5	Veraguas	12	0	18
6	Tauro FC	12	+5	17
7	Independiente de La Chorrera	12	0	14
8	Alianza FC	12	0	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	12	−3	13
10	Deportivo Universitario	12	−3	11
11	Herrera	12	−14	11
12	Union Cocle	12	−14	5