Herrera v San Francisco FC prediction · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Francisco FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Herrera 23%, draw 25%, San Francisco FC 52%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Herrera v San Francisco FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Herrera win23%

Draw25%

San Francisco FC win52%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Los Milagros

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Herrera

San Francisco FC

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
11	Herrera	12	−14	11

Match statistics

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san francisco fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 22 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make San Francisco FC a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Herrera v San Francisco FC~~1.10 – 1.79

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 23~~11 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Francisco FC win

Published at 53%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Herrera win	23%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
San Francisco FC win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Herrera or draw	48%	–	–
Herrera clean sheet	18%	–	–
San Francisco FC clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 9.0 8.8 5.3 2.5 1 5.3 11.8 9.4 5.6 2.6 2 3.5 5.9 5.1 3.1 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Herrera down, San Francisco FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,206 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Herrera at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). San Francisco FC away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Herrera, 1.79 for San Francisco FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 3–1 HER · HER 1–2 SAN · SAN 2–2 HER · SAN 1–0 HER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 6 Sept

HERRERA

LLLLWW1–4 · 1–3 · 0–6 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–2

SAN FRANCISCO FC

DWLWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	12	+12	27
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	13	+6	23
4	UMECIT	13	+2	20
5	Veraguas	12	0	18
6	Tauro FC	12	+5	17
7	Independiente de La Chorrera	13	+1	17
8	Alianza FC	12	0	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	12	−3	13
10	Deportivo Universitario	13	−4	11
11	Herrera	12	−14	11
12	Union Cocle	12	−14	5