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Deportivo Universitario v Independiente de La Chorrera

Deportivo Universitario

0–1Full time

Independiente de La Chorrera

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio Universidad Latina

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01

Deportivo Universitario 0–1 Independiente de La Chorrera INDEPENDIENTE DE LA CHORRERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente de La Chorrera win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.573

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente de La Chorrera win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Independiente de La Chorrera was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 32–30–38
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Universitario v Independiente de La Chorrera
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Independiente de La Chorrera
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Deportivo Universitario
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Independiente de La Chorrera win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
30′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Deportivo Universitario
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Independiente de La Chorrera
32′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Independiente de La Chorrera · On: O. Berrocal · Off: A. Cifuentes
32′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo Universitario · On: R. Rangel · Off: U. Maltez
33′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Universitario · On: A. Betegon · Off: R. Herrera
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Independiente de La Chorrera win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Universitario 0–0 Independiente de La Chorrera
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Deportivo Universitario
51′Much as we predicted: Independiente de La Chorrera was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 29% now. 0–0 · 25–46–29
51′SECOND HALF Deportivo Universitario 0–0 Independiente de La Chorrera
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Independiente de La Chorrera win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
58′We said Independiente de La Chorrera at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 23–51–26
60′🟨 YELLOW Independiente de La Chorrera
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Universitario · On: A. De Los Rios · Off: M. Acosta
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Universitario · On: J. Simons · Off: J. Clarke
62′We said Independiente de La Chorrera at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
70′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Independiente de La Chorrera · On: E. Giron · Off: M. Moran
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Independiente de La Chorrera · On: D. Contreras · Off: A. Altamirano
71′We said Independiente de La Chorrera at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–65–19
71′🟨 YELLOW · 62' A. Cifuentes · Independiente de La Chorrera
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Independiente de La Chorrera win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
77′We said Independiente de La Chorrera at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
79′Independiente de La Chorrera find the net on 19′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
79′⚽ GOAL · 19' Deportivo Universitario 0–2 Independiente de La Chorrera
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Independiente de La Chorrera win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Independiente de La Chorrera win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 76%)
80′Independiente de La Chorrera find the net on 20′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
81′Independiente de La Chorrera find the net on 21′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
81′We published Independiente de La Chorrera at 38%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
82′Independiente de La Chorrera find the net on 22′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
83′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Deportivo Universitario
83′GOAL DISALLOWED · 83' Independiente de La Chorrera
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Independiente de La Chorrera win: 38% at kick-off, 92% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Independiente de La Chorrera
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Universitario 0–1 Independiente de La Chorrera
FTDeportivo Universitario 0–1 Independiente de La Chorrera · Independiente de La Chorrera win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente de La Chorrera are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Universitario 32%, draw 30%, Independiente de La Chorrera 38%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Universitario v Independiente de La ChorreraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Universitario win32%

Draw30%

Independiente de La Chorrera win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:15

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Universidad Latina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Universitario

Independiente de La Chorrera

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Independiente de La Chorrera	12	0	14
10	Deportivo Universitario	12	−3	11

Match statistics

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · independiente de la chorrera winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 22 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Independiente de La Chorrera a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Universitario v Independiente de La Chorrera~~1.12 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~10 v 7

~~The market · Independiente de La Chorrera win~~33% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Independiente de La Chorrera win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Universitario win	32%	38%	−6
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Independiente de La Chorrera win	38%	33%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Deportivo Universitario or draw	62%	67%	−5
Deportivo Universitario clean sheet	29%	–	–
Independiente de La Chorrera clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 10.8 10.4 7.3 3.1 1 9.2 14.0 8.0 3.4 2 5.8 7.2 4.5 3 2.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Universitario down, Independiente de La Chorrera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,204 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Universitario at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente de La Chorrera away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Deportivo Universitario, 1.26 for Independiente de La Chorrera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IND 2–2 DEP · IND 3–2 DEP · DEP 1–1 IND · IND 2–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 5 Sept

DEPORTIVO UNIVERSITARIO

DLDWLL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

INDEPENDIENTE DE LA CHORRERA

LDWLDW0–2 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	12	+12	27
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	13	+6	23
4	UMECIT	13	+2	20
5	Veraguas	12	0	18
6	Tauro FC	12	+5	17
7	Independiente de La Chorrera	12	0	14
8	Alianza FC	12	0	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	12	−3	13
10	Deportivo Universitario	12	−3	11
11	Herrera	12	−14	11
12	Union Cocle	12	−14	5