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CD Arabe Unido v UMECIT

CD Arabe Unido

1–1Full time

UMECIT

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Armando Dely Valdes

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 05:01

CD Arabe Unido 1–1 UMECIT CD ARABE UNIDO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Arabe Unido win~~39%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.682

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.735

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Arabe Unido win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CD Arabe Unido 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–33–28
1′KICK-OFF CD Arabe Unido v UMECIT
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' UMECIT
24′We said CD Arabe Unido at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–8
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' CD Arabe Unido 1–0 UMECIT
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' CD Arabe Unido win: 39% at kick-off, 74% now
26′A goal for CD Arabe Unido on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' CD Arabe Unido
30′J. Valencia scores for CD Arabe Unido on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
31′We said CD Arabe Unido at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–7
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' CD Arabe Unido
45′SECOND HALF CD Arabe Unido 1–0 UMECIT
48′HALF-TIME CD Arabe Unido 1–0 UMECIT
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' CD Arabe Unido
51′UMECIT score on 51′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 28–50–21
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' CD Arabe Unido win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' CD Arabe Unido 1–1 UMECIT
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' CD Arabe Unido win: 39% at kick-off, 28% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was CD Arabe Unido win 79%)
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' UMECIT · On: H. Peralta · Off: J. Murillo
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' UMECIT · On: M. Casazola · Off: B. Valderrama
53′We said CD Arabe Unido at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–52–21
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' UMECIT
60′We said CD Arabe Unido at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
67′53′: N. M. Anderson Gomez on the scoresheet for UMECIT, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 20–64–16
69′We said CD Arabe Unido at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' CD Arabe Unido win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' CD Arabe Unido
77′We said CD Arabe Unido at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–76–10
79′SUBSTITUTION · 59' CD Arabe Unido · On: O. Penalba · Off: J. Jimenez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 59' CD Arabe Unido · On: M. Ceballos · Off: R. Graham
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' UMECIT · On: E. Rodriguez · Off: R. Avila
81′SUBSTITUTION · 73' CD Arabe Unido · On: D. Bernal · Off: C. Dupuy
82′We said CD Arabe Unido at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
82′SUBSTITUTION · 73' CD Arabe Unido · On: J. Filos · Off: J. Valencia
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' UMECIT · On: A. Palmezano · Off: O. Almanza
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' CD Arabe Unido win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' CD Arabe Unido
89′We said CD Arabe Unido at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' CD Arabe Unido · On: M. Breary · Off: O. Reefer
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' UMECIT · On: J. Araya · Off: N. M. Anderson Gomez
93′1–1 at the end. Our 39% on CD Arabe Unido misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME CD Arabe Unido 1–1 UMECIT
FTCD Arabe Unido 1–1 UMECIT · CD Arabe Unido win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Arabe Unido are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CD Arabe Unido 39%, draw 33%, UMECIT 28%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on CD Arabe Unido v UMECITBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

CD Arabe Unido win39%

Draw33%

UMECIT win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 02:30

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Armando Dely Valdes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CD Arabe Unido

UMECIT

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	CD Arabe Unido	12	+6	22
4	UMECIT	12	+2	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cd arabe unido winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 22 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make CD Arabe Unido a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CD Arabe Unido v UMECIT~~1.12 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 19~~3 v 4

~~The market · CD Arabe Unido win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CD Arabe Unido win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CD Arabe Unido win	39%	40%	−1
Draw	33%	30%	+3
UMECIT win	28%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Both teams to score	41%	46%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	61%	63%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	15%	20%	−5
CD Arabe Unido or draw	72%	70%	+2
CD Arabe Unido clean sheet	41%	–	–
UMECIT clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.8 10.6 5.4 1 13.5 14.4 5.9 2 8.3 7.3 3.3 3 3.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CD Arabe Unido down, UMECIT across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,204 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.10 goals a meeting; 0 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CD Arabe Unido at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). UMECIT away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for CD Arabe Unido, 0.90 for UMECIT. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.10

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UME 0–0 CDA · CDA 1–1 UME · UME 1–0 CDA · CDA 1–1 UME

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 5 Sept

CD ARABE UNIDO

WWWWDL3–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

UMECIT

WWWLWW2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	12	+12	27
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	12	+6	22
4	UMECIT	12	+2	19
5	Veraguas	12	0	18
6	Tauro FC	12	+5	17
7	Independiente de La Chorrera	12	0	14
8	Alianza FC	12	0	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	12	−3	13
10	Deportivo Universitario	12	−3	11
11	Herrera	12	−14	11
12	Union Cocle	12	−14	5