Alianza FC v Sporting San Miguelito prediction · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza FC 40%, draw 31%, Sporting San Miguelito 28%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Alianza FC v Sporting San MiguelitoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Alianza FC win40%

Draw31%

Sporting San Miguelito win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:15

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Rommel Fernandez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza FC

Sporting San Miguelito

7Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga Panameña de Fútbol

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Alianza FC	12	0	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	12	−3	13

Match statistics

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alianza fc winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 22 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Alianza FC a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alianza FC v Sporting San Miguelito~~1.21 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alianza FC win

Published at 39%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza FC win	40%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Sporting San Miguelito win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Alianza FC or draw	72%	–	–
Alianza FC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Sporting San Miguelito clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 12.8 9.7 5.4 1 12.3 14.2 6.3 2.1 2 8.2 7.8 3.8 3 3.4 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza FC down, Sporting San Miguelito across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,206 Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Panameña de Fútbol matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza FC at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting San Miguelito away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Alianza FC, 0.98 for Sporting San Miguelito. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–0 ALI · ALI 3–2 SPO · SPO 1–0 ALI · SPO 2–1 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Panameña de Fútbol this season · since 5 Sept

ALIANZA FC

DLDWLL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

SPORTING SAN MIGUELITO

DLLDWL1–1 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026 · Apertura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	13	+13	30
2	San Francisco FC	12	+9	23
3	CD Arabe Unido	13	+6	23
4	UMECIT	13	+2	20
5	Veraguas	12	0	18
6	Tauro FC	13	+4	17
7	Independiente de La Chorrera	13	+1	17
8	Alianza FC	12	0	14
9	Sporting San Miguelito	12	−3	13
10	Deportivo Universitario	13	−4	11
11	Herrera	12	−14	11
12	Union Cocle	12	−14	5