Sur v Oman Club prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Sur 2–1 Oman Club OMAN CLUB WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oman Club win~~43%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.764

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.057

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oman Club win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Oman Club 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 29–28–43
1′KICK-OFF Sur v Oman Club
5′A goal for Sur on 5′. 0–0 · 29–29–43
6′We said Oman Club at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 58–24–18
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Sur 1–0 Oman Club
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Oman Club win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Sur win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Oman Club win 43%)
24′We said Oman Club at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Oman Club win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 63–25–13
39′Oman Club find the net on 39′. 1–1. 1–1 · 25–40–35
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Sur 1–1 Oman Club
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Oman Club win: 43% at kick-off, 35% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Sur win 65%)
45′HALF-TIME Sur 1–1 Oman Club
45′SECOND HALF Sur 1–1 Oman Club
50′We said Oman Club at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 23–46–31
54′We said Oman Club at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 21–49–29
64′We said Oman Club at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–58–24
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Oman Club win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
79′We said Oman Club at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
79′A goal for Sur on 79′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
79′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 87–12–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sur 2–1 Oman Club
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Oman Club win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Sur win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 76%)
90′2–1 at the end. Our 43% on Oman Club misses, and the record keeps it. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sur 2–1 Oman Club
FTSur 2–1 Oman Club · Oman Club win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oman Club are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sur 29%, draw 27%, Oman Club 43%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Sur v Oman ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sur win29%

Draw27%

Oman Club win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sur

Oman Club

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Professional League

Last match: 18 Oct · Professional League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Oman Club	4	0	6
14	Sur	5	−10	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oman club winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 14:25 · locked at kick-off

43% The market56%

Us43%

~~Market~~56%

We make Oman Club a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sur v Oman Club~~0.98 – 1.27

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 31 Aug~~W0 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 6~~14 v 8

~~The market · Oman Club win~~56% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oman Club win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sur win	29%	18%	+11
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Oman Club win	43%	56%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	27%	−8
Sur or draw	57%	44%	+13
Sur clean sheet	29%	–	–
Oman Club clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.4 13.9 8.5 3.6 1 10.9 12.4 8.1 3.5 2 5.1 6.3 4.0 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sur down, Oman Club across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 846 Professional League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.9% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sur at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Oman Club away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Sur, 1.27 for Oman Club. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OMA 1–2 SUR · OMA 2–3 SUR · SUR 0–0 OMA · OMA 1–2 SUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 31 Aug

SUR

LLLLL2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–5

OMAN CLUB

WWLL2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Nahda	5	+7	13
2	Al-Shabab	5	+8	12
3	Al Nasr	4	+6	12
4	Al Seeb	5	+5	10
5	Saham	6	−1	9
6	Al Musannah	6	+1	7
7	Bahla	4	0	6
8	Oman Club	4	0	6
9	Smail	6	−4	6
10	Ibri	6	0	5
11	Fanja	5	−1	5
12	Dhofar	5	−2	5
13	Sohar	6	−9	5
14	Sur	5	−10	0