Sohar v Al-Shabab prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 19:01

Sohar 0–5 Al-Shabab AL-SHABAB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Shabab win~~46%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.440

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.427

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Shabab win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Shabab was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 30–24–46
1′KICK-OFF Sohar v Al-Shabab
2′A goal for Al-Shabab on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–18–70
2′We published Al-Shabab at 46%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 13–18–70
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Sohar 0–1 Al-Shabab
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Al-Shabab win: 46% at kick-off, 70% now
13′K. Al Buraiki scores for Al-Shabab on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–18–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
45′SECOND HALF Sohar 0–1 Al-Shabab
49′We published Al-Shabab at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
51′HALF-TIME Sohar 0–1 Al-Shabab
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Al-Shabab win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
65′We published Al-Shabab at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Sohar
69′A red card for Sohar on 68′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 3–16–82
72′We published Al-Shabab at 46%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Sohar 0–2 Al-Shabab
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Al-Shabab win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
73′Al-Shabab score on 73′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
83′We published Al-Shabab at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
97′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Sohar 0–3 Al-Shabab
98′Al-Shabab find the net on 90′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
100′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
100′A goal for Al-Shabab on 90′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
100′⚽ GOAL · 90+10' Sohar 0–4 Al-Shabab
101′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
101′⚽ GOAL · 90+11' Sohar 0–5 Al-Shabab
102′Al-Shabab score on 90′ to make it 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
102′0–5 after extra time. Our 46% on Al-Shabab is graded on the score after ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Sohar 0–5 Al-Shabab
FTSohar 0–5 Al-Shabab · Al-Shabab win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Shabab are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sohar 30%, draw 24%, Al-Shabab 46%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Sohar v Al-ShababBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Sohar win30%

Draw24%

Al-Shabab win46%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sohar

Al-Shabab

10Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Professional League

Last match: 14 Oct · AGCFF Gulf Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al-Shabab	3	+2	6
12	Sohar	4	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-shabab winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

46% The market47%

Us46%

~~Market~~47%

We make Al-Shabab a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sohar v Al-Shabab~~1.26 – 1.61

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 6~~12 v 5

~~The market · Al-Shabab win~~47% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Shabab win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sohar win	30%	25%	+5
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Al-Shabab win	46%	47%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	45%	+9
Both teams to score	56%	50%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	70%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	32%	25%	+7
Sohar or draw	54%	53%	+1
Sohar clean sheet	20%	–	–
Al-Shabab clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.5 9.7 7.4 4.0 1 7.6 11.0 9.0 4.9 2.0 2 4.5 7.1 5.6 3.0 3 3.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sohar down, Al-Shabab across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 840 Professional League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sohar at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Shabab away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Sohar, 1.61 for Al-Shabab. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ALS 2–1 SOH · ALS 0–1 SOH · SOH 1–2 ALS · SOH 2–1 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 31 Aug

SOHAR

DWDL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–4

AL-SHABAB

WLW3–2 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Nasr	4	+6	12
2	Saham	5	0	9
3	Al Seeb	4	+3	7
4	Al-Nahda	3	+2	7
5	Al-Shabab	3	+2	6
6	Bahla	4	0	6
7	Oman Club	4	0	6
8	Smail	5	−3	6
9	Ibri	5	+2	5
10	Fanja	5	−1	5
11	Dhofar	5	−2	5
12	Sohar	4	−2	5
13	Al Musannah	5	−1	4
14	Sur	4	−6	0