Smail v Al Musannah prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Smail 1–1 Al Musannah AL MUSANNAH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Musannah win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.823

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Musannah win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Musannah was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 27–27–46
1′KICK-OFF Smail v Al Musannah
19′A goal for Al Musannah on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–18–74
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Smail 0–1 Al Musannah
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Al Musannah win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
20′We published Al Musannah at 46%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 8–18–74
21′We published Al Musannah at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 8–18–75
30′Smail score on 29′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–35–40
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Smail 1–1 Al Musannah
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Al Musannah win: 46% at kick-off, 40% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Al Musannah win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Al Musannah win 36%)
45′Smail score on 29′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 22–42–35
45′Much as we predicted: Al Musannah was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 1–1 · 22–42–35
45′HALF-TIME Smail 1–1 Al Musannah
46′SECOND HALF Smail 1–1 Al Musannah
47′We said Al Musannah at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 22–44–34
58′We said Al Musannah at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–52–29
63′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 17–56–26
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Al Musannah win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
67′We said Al Musannah at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 16–60–24
73′We said Al Musannah at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 13–68–19
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Al Musannah win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
79′We said Al Musannah at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 9–77–14
83′We said Al Musannah at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 6–84–9
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Al Musannah win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
90′We said Al Musannah at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME Smail 1–1 Al Musannah
FTSmail 1–1 Al Musannah · Al Musannah win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Musannah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Smail 27%, draw 27%, Al Musannah 46%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Smail v Al MusannahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Smail win27%

Draw27%

Al Musannah win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Smail

Al Musannah

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Professional League

Last match: 9 Oct · Professional League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Smail	4	−3	5
10	Al Musannah	4	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al musannah winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Al Musannah a 46% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Smail v Al Musannah~~0.95 – 1.36

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 3~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Smail win	27%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Al Musannah win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Smail or draw	54%	–	–
Smail clean sheet	26%	–	–
Al Musannah clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.0 13.9 9.1 4.2 1 9.9 12.1 8.3 3.8 2 4.6 5.9 4.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Smail down, Al Musannah across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 835 Professional League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Smail at home: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Musannah away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Smail, 1.36 for Al Musannah. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug

SMAIL

WLDD1–0 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 2–2

AL MUSANNAH

LLLW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Nasr	3	+5	9
2	Saham	4	+2	9
3	Al Seeb	3	+4	7
4	Al-Nahda	3	+2	7
5	Al-Shabab	3	+2	6
6	Oman Club	3	+1	6
7	Ibri	4	+3	5
8	Sohar	4	−2	5
9	Smail	4	−3	5
10	Al Musannah	4	−1	3
11	Bahla	3	−1	3
12	Dhofar	4	−3	2
13	Fanja	4	−3	2
14	Sur	4	−6	0