Saham v Al-Nahda prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:58

Saham 0–1 Al-Nahda AL-NAHDA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al-Nahda win~~59%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.248

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.265

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Nahda win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Nahda was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 18–23–59
1′KICK-OFF Saham v Al-Nahda
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Al-Nahda win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
39′We said Al-Nahda at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 17–36–47
45′HALF-TIME Saham 0–1 Al-Nahda
46′Al-Nahda score on 45′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–13–84
46′We published Al-Nahda at 59%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 3–13–84
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 3–13–84
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Saham 0–1 Al-Nahda
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Al-Nahda win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
46′SECOND HALF Saham 0–1 Al-Nahda
51′We published Al-Nahda at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
70′Saham find the net on 70′. 1–1. 1–1 · 11–61–27
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Saham 1–1 Al-Nahda
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Al-Nahda win: 59% at kick-off, 27% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Al-Nahda win 88%)
71′GOAL DISALLOWED · 71' Saham
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Al-Nahda win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Al-Nahda win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 61%)
83′We published Al-Nahda at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Al-Nahda win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Saham 0–1 Al-Nahda
FTSaham 0–1 Al-Nahda · Al-Nahda win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Nahda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Saham 18%, draw 23%, Al-Nahda 59%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Saham v Al-NahdaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Saham win18%

Draw23%

Al-Nahda win59%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:20

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Saham

Al-Nahda

6Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Professional League

Last match: 19 Oct · Professional League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al-Nahda	4	+6	10
4	Saham	5	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-nahda winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:24 · locked at kick-off

59% The market58%

Us59%

~~Market~~58%

We make Al-Nahda a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Saham v Al-Nahda~~0.78 – 1.70

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~4 v 2

~~The market · Al-Nahda win~~58% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Nahda win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saham win	18%	17%	+1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Al-Nahda win	59%	58%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	43%	46%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−1
Saham or draw	41%	42%	−1
Saham clean sheet	19%	–	–
Al-Nahda clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.6%

0123450 8.3 14.6 12.0 6.9 3.0 1 7.0 10.6 9.1 5.2 2.3 2 2.6 4.3 3.6 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saham down, Al-Nahda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 842 Professional League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.6% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Saham at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Nahda away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.78 goals for Saham, 1.70 for Al-Nahda. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALN 1–1 SAH · SAH 1–0 ALN · ALN 1–0 SAH · ALN 1–1 SAH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug

SAHAM

LWWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

AL-NAHDA

WWDW1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Nasr	4	+6	12
2	Al-Nahda	4	+6	10
3	Al-Shabab	4	+7	9
4	Saham	5	0	9
5	Al Seeb	4	+3	7
6	Bahla	4	0	6
7	Oman Club	4	0	6
8	Smail	5	−3	6
9	Ibri	5	+2	5
10	Fanja	5	−1	5
11	Dhofar	5	−2	5
12	Sohar	5	−7	5
13	Al Musannah	5	−1	4
14	Sur	5	−10	0