Ibri v Dhofar prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Ibri 2–3 Dhofar DHOFAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dhofar win~~43%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.496

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dhofar win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dhofar was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–27–42
1′KICK-OFF Ibri v Dhofar
17′Dhofar find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ibri 0–1 Dhofar
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Dhofar win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
18′We published Dhofar at 43%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 9–19–71
21′A goal for Dhofar on 21′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
21′We published Dhofar at 43%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Ibri 0–2 Dhofar
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Dhofar win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Dhofar win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
44′Dhofar score on 43′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
44′We published Dhofar at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Ibri 0–3 Dhofar
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′HALF-TIME Ibri 0–3 Dhofar
46′SECOND HALF Ibri 0–3 Dhofar
54′Ibri find the net on 53′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Ibri 1–3 Dhofar
55′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–96
60′A goal for Ibri on 60′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 3–17–80
60′We published Dhofar at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ibri 2–3 Dhofar
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Dhofar win: 43% at kick-off, 80% now
61′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 3–17–80
71′We published Dhofar at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–3 · 2–14–85
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Dhofar win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
FTFULL TIME Ibri 2–3 Dhofar
FTIbri 2–3 Dhofar · Dhofar win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dhofar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ibri 30%, draw 27%, Dhofar 43%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Ibri v DhofarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ibri win30%

Draw27%

Dhofar win43%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ibri

Dhofar

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Professional League

Last match: 10 Oct · Professional League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Ibri	4	+3	5
13	Dhofar	4	−3	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dhofar winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market32%

Us43%

~~Market~~32%

We make Dhofar a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ibri v Dhofar~~1.03 – 1.29

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 2~~8 v 13

~~The market · Dhofar win~~32% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dhofar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ibri win	30%	37%	−7
Draw	27%	31%	−4
Dhofar win	43%	32%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	24%	−3
Ibri or draw	57%	68%	−11
Ibri clean sheet	28%	–	–
Dhofar clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.8 13.0 8.1 3.5 1 10.5 12.6 8.2 3.6 2 5.3 6.6 4.2 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ibri down, Dhofar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 837 Professional League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ibri at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dhofar away: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Ibri, 1.29 for Dhofar. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~IBR 2–0 DHO · DHO 3–0 IBR · IBR 1–0 DHO · DHO 0–2 IBR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 31 Aug

IBRI

DWLD0–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

DHOFAR

LLDD0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Nasr	3	+5	9
2	Saham	5	0	9
3	Al Seeb	3	+4	7
4	Al-Nahda	3	+2	7
5	Al-Shabab	3	+2	6
6	Oman Club	3	+1	6
7	Smail	5	−3	6
8	Ibri	4	+3	5
9	Fanja	5	−1	5
10	Sohar	4	−2	5
11	Al Musannah	5	−1	4
12	Bahla	3	−1	3
13	Dhofar	4	−3	2
14	Sur	4	−6	0