Fanja v Saham

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Fanja win at 37%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Fanja 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
3. 1′KICK-OFF Fanja v Saham
4. 18′Fanja score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 68–21–11
5. 18′We said Fanja at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–21–11
6. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Fanja 1–0 Saham
7. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Fanja win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
8. 20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' Fanja
9. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Fanja win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
10. 25′A goal for Fanja on 25′. 0–0 · 33–36–31
11. 26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Fanja 1–0 Saham
12. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Fanja win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
13. 27′We said Fanja at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
14. 29′Saham find the net on 29′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–37–30
15. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Fanja 1–1 Saham
16. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Fanja win: 37% at kick-off, 33% now
17. 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Fanja win 32%)
18. 45′HALF-TIME Fanja 1–1 Saham
19. 46′SECOND HALF Fanja 1–1 Saham
20. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Fanja win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
21. 54′We said Fanja at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–51–24
22. 57′We said Fanja at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
23. 59′We said Fanja at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–1 · 78–18–4
24. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Fanja win: 37% at kick-off, 78% now
25. 60′A goal for Fanja on 59′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–4
26. 60′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–18–4
27. 60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Fanja 2–1 Saham
28. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Fanja win: 37% at kick-off, 79% now
29. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Fanja win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
30. 64′We said Fanja at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
31. 71′Fanja score on 70′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
32. 71′We said Fanja at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
33. 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
34. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Fanja 3–1 Saham
35. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Fanja win: 37% at kick-off, 98% now
36. 77′Saham are down to ten from 77′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 99–1–0
37. 77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Saham
38. 81′We said Fanja at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
39. FTFULL TIME Fanja 3–1 Saham
40. FTFanja 3–1 Saham · Fanja win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.