Dhofar v Fanja prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Dhofar 1–1 Fanja DHOFAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dhofar win~~41%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.775

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.735

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dhofar win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dhofar 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–30
1′KICK-OFF Dhofar v Fanja
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dhofar win 36%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dhofar win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME Dhofar 0–0 Fanja
46′SECOND HALF Dhofar 0–0 Fanja
50′We said Dhofar at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
61′We said Dhofar at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
67′Dhofar find the net on 67′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–15–2
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Dhofar win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Dhofar 1–0 Fanja
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Dhofar win: 41% at kick-off, 84% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Dhofar win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 63%)
68′We said Dhofar at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
69′We said Dhofar at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′We said Dhofar at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Dhofar win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
82′A goal for Fanja on 81′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 9–84–7
82′We said Dhofar at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Dhofar 1–1 Fanja
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Dhofar win: 41% at kick-off, 9% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Dhofar win 92%)
83′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–1 · 8–85–6
89′We said Dhofar at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Dhofar win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Dhofar 1–1 Fanja
FTDhofar 1–1 Fanja · Dhofar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dhofar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dhofar 41%, draw 28%, Fanja 30%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Dhofar v FanjaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dhofar win41%

Draw28%

Fanja win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:10

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dhofar

Fanja

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Professional League

Last match: 17 Oct · Professional League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Fanja	5	−1	5
12	Dhofar	5	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dhofar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market43%

Us41%

~~Market~~43%

We make Dhofar a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dhofar v Fanja~~1.17 – 0.94

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~12 v 11

~~The market · Dhofar win~~43% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dhofar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dhofar win	41%	43%	−2
Draw	28%	31%	−3
Fanja win	30%	27%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Both teams to score	40%	45%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	61%	63%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−4
Dhofar or draw	70%	73%	−3
Dhofar clean sheet	40%	–	–
Fanja clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 12.0 12.1 5.5 1 14.6 12.4 6.1 2 8.2 7.4 3.5 3 3.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dhofar down, Fanja across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 846 Professional League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.9% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dhofar at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fanja away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Dhofar, 0.94 for Fanja. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DHO 2–0 FAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug

DHOFAR

LLDDW0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–2

FANJA

LLDDW0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Nahda	5	+7	13
2	Al-Shabab	5	+8	12
3	Al Nasr	4	+6	12
4	Al Seeb	5	+5	10
5	Saham	6	−1	9
6	Al Musannah	6	+1	7
7	Bahla	4	0	6
8	Oman Club	4	0	6
9	Smail	6	−4	6
10	Ibri	6	0	5
11	Fanja	5	−1	5
12	Dhofar	5	−2	5
13	Sohar	6	−9	5
14	Sur	5	−10	0