Bahla v Al Nasr prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Bahla 1–0 Al Nasr AL NASR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Nasr win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.694

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Nasr win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Nasr was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
1′KICK-OFF Bahla v Al Nasr
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Al Nasr win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Bahla 0–0 Al Nasr
46′A goal for Bahla on 46′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–8
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bahla 1–0 Al Nasr
46′SECOND HALF Bahla 1–0 Al Nasr
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Al Nasr win: 40% at kick-off, 8% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Bahla win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 43%)
47′We said Al Nasr at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 70–23–8
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 70–23–8
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Al Nasr win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
61′We said Al Nasr at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Al Nasr win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Bahla 1–0 Al Nasr
FTBahla 1–0 Al Nasr · Al Nasr win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Nasr are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bahla 32%, draw 28%, Al Nasr 40%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Bahla v Al NasrBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bahla win32%

Draw28%

Al Nasr win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bahla

Al Nasr

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Professional League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al Nasr	4	+6	12
7	Bahla	4	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al nasr winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Al Nasr a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bahla v Al Nasr~~1.05 – 1.20

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~7 v 3

~~The market · Al Nasr win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Nasr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bahla win	32%	26%	+6
Draw	28%	32%	−4
Al Nasr win	40%	42%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	38%	+1
Both teams to score	44%	45%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	65%	63%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	19%	0
Bahla or draw	60%	58%	+2
Bahla clean sheet	30%	–	–
Al Nasr clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.3 13.2 7.6 3.1 1 11.6 12.6 7.8 3.2 2 5.8 6.8 4.1 3 2.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bahla down, Al Nasr across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 846 Professional League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.9% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bahla at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Nasr away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Bahla, 1.20 for Al Nasr. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALN 2–2 BAH · BAH 1–3 ALN · ALN 3–2 BAH · ALN 3–0 BAH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug

BAHLA

LLWW1–3 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

AL NASR

WWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Nahda	5	+7	13
2	Al-Shabab	5	+8	12
3	Al Nasr	4	+6	12
4	Al Seeb	5	+5	10
5	Saham	6	−1	9
6	Al Musannah	6	+1	7
7	Bahla	4	0	6
8	Oman Club	4	0	6
9	Smail	6	−4	6
10	Ibri	6	0	5
11	Fanja	5	−1	5
12	Dhofar	5	−2	5
13	Sohar	6	−9	5
14	Sur	5	−10	0