Al-Shabab v Smail prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Al-Shabab 2–1 Smail AL-SHABAB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Shabab win~~65%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.132

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Shabab win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Shabab 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–19–16
1′KICK-OFF Al-Shabab v Smail
2′Smail score on 1′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 41–24–35
2′We said Al-Shabab at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–1 · 41–24–35
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Al-Shabab 0–1 Smail
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Al-Shabab win: 65% at kick-off, 41% now
7′We said Al-Shabab at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–24–37
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Al-Shabab win: 65% at kick-off, 35% now
19′We said Al-Shabab at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–26–40
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Smail win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al-Shabab win 38%)
30′We said Al-Shabab at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–43
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 29–27–43
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Al-Shabab win: 65% at kick-off, 25% now
40′We said Al-Shabab at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–47
45′HALF-TIME Al-Shabab 0–1 Smail
46′SECOND HALF Al-Shabab 0–1 Smail
50′We said Al-Shabab at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
50′Al-Shabab find the net on 50′. 1–1. 1–1 · 48–36–16
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Al-Shabab 1–1 Smail
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Al-Shabab win: 65% at kick-off, 48% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Al-Shabab win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Smail win 52%)
51′We said Al-Shabab at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–37–16
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Al-Shabab win 43%)
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Al-Shabab win: 65% at kick-off, 35% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Al-Shabab win: 65% at kick-off, 25% now
78′A goal for Al-Shabab on 78′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 91–9–1
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Al-Shabab 2–1 Smail
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Al-Shabab win: 65% at kick-off, 91% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Al-Shabab win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 68%)
79′We said Al-Shabab at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–1
84′We said Al-Shabab at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Al-Shabab win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Al-Shabab 2–1 Smail
FTAl-Shabab 2–1 Smail · Al-Shabab win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Shabab are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Shabab 65%, draw 19%, Smail 16%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Al-Shabab v SmailBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Shabab win65%

Draw19%

Smail win16%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:50

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Shabab

Smail

4Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Professional League

Last match: 17 Oct · Professional League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al-Shabab	4	+7	9
8	Smail	5	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-shabab winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

65% The market71%

Us65%

~~Market~~71%

We make Al-Shabab a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Shabab v Smail~~2.19 – 0.96

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~3 v 8

~~The market · Al-Shabab win~~71% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Shabab win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Shabab win	65%	71%	−6
Draw	19%	19%	0
Smail win	16%	10%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	60%	52%	+8
Both teams to score	54%	42%	+12
Over 1.5 goals	81%	75%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	38%	31%	+7
Al-Shabab or draw	84%	90%	−6
Al-Shabab clean sheet	39%	–	–
Smail clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%

0123450 4.3 4.7 2.1 1 9.8 8.7 4.3 2 10.1 9.5 4.6 3 7.3 6.9 3.3 4 4.1 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Shabab down, Smail across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 842 Professional League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.6% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Shabab at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Smail away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Al-Shabab, 0.96 for Smail. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SMA 0–7 ALS · ALS 1–3 SMA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 31 Aug

AL-SHABAB

WLWW3–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 5–0

SMAIL

WLDDD1–0 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Nasr	4	+6	12
2	Al-Nahda	4	+6	10
3	Al-Shabab	4	+7	9
4	Saham	5	0	9
5	Al Seeb	4	+3	7
6	Bahla	4	0	6
7	Oman Club	4	0	6
8	Smail	5	−3	6
9	Ibri	5	+2	5
10	Fanja	5	−1	5
11	Dhofar	5	−2	5
12	Sohar	5	−7	5
13	Al Musannah	5	−1	4
14	Sur	5	−10	0