Al Nasr v Al Seeb prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Al Nasr 1–0 Al Seeb AL SEEB WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Seeb win~~55%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.997

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Seeb win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Seeb was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 20–25–55
1′KICK-OFF Al Nasr v Al Seeb
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Al Seeb win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
37′Al Nasr score on 36′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 56–28–17
37′We said Al Seeb at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 56–28–17
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Al Nasr 1–0 Al Seeb
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Al Seeb win: 55% at kick-off, 17% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Al Nasr win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Al Seeb win 17%)
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 56–28–16
39′Al Nasr score on 39′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 56–28–16
39′GOAL DISALLOWED · 39' Al Nasr
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Al Seeb win: 55% at kick-off, 44% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Al Seeb win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Al Nasr win 19%)
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Al Nasr 1–0 Al Seeb
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Al Seeb win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Al Nasr win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Al Seeb win 16%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Al Seeb win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
43′We said Al Seeb at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 58–28–14
45′HALF-TIME Al Nasr 1–0 Al Seeb
46′38′: A. S. Djambae on the scoresheet for Al Nasr, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 59–27–13
46′SECOND HALF Al Nasr 1–0 Al Seeb
56′We said Al Seeb at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–26–9
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Al Seeb win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
69′We said Al Seeb at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 74–22–4
71′Al Nasr find the net on 71′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Al Nasr 2–0 Al Seeb
75′GOAL DISALLOWED · 75' Al Nasr
FTFULL TIME Al Nasr 1–0 Al Seeb
FTAl Nasr 1–0 Al Seeb · Al Seeb win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Seeb are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Nasr 20%, draw 25%, Al Seeb 55%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Al Nasr v Al SeebBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Nasr win20%

Draw25%

Al Seeb win55%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Nasr

Al Seeb

17Days since last match5

Last match: 1 Oct · FA Cup (Oman)

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al seeb winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market45%

Us55%

~~Market~~45%

We make Al Seeb a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Nasr v Al Seeb~~0.82 – 1.56

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D0 L0 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 7~~1 v 3

~~The market · Al Seeb win~~45% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Seeb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Nasr win	20%	26%	−6
Draw	25%	30%	−5
Al Seeb win	55%	45%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Al Nasr or draw	45%	55%	−10
Al Nasr clean sheet	22%	–	–
Al Seeb clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.7%

0123450 9.2 14.7 11.1 5.8 2.3 1 8.0 11.4 9.0 4.7 2 3.2 4.8 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Nasr down, Al Seeb across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 837 Professional League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Nasr at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al Seeb away: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Al Nasr, 1.56 for Al Seeb. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALS 0–0 ALN · ALS 2–0 ALN · ALN 0–2 ALS · ALS 1–1 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug

AL NASR

WWW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

AL SEEB

WWD3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Nasr	3	+5	9
2	Saham	5	0	9
3	Al Seeb	3	+4	7
4	Al-Nahda	3	+2	7
5	Al-Shabab	3	+2	6
6	Oman Club	3	+1	6
7	Smail	5	−3	6
8	Ibri	4	+3	5
9	Fanja	5	−1	5
10	Sohar	4	−2	5
11	Al Musannah	5	−1	4
12	Bahla	3	−1	3
13	Dhofar	4	−3	2
14	Sur	4	−6	0