Al-Nahda v Sur prediction · Professional League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 16:30

Al-Nahda 5–1 Sur AL-NAHDA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Nahda win~~57%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.282

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.164

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Nahda win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Nahda 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
1′KICK-OFF Al-Nahda v Sur
13′Al-Nahda find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Al-Nahda 1–0 Sur
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Al-Nahda win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
14′We said Al-Nahda at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
45′HALF-TIME Al-Nahda 1–0 Sur
46′SECOND HALF Al-Nahda 1–0 Sur
55′A goal for Al-Nahda on 55′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Al-Nahda 2–0 Sur
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Al-Nahda win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
56′We said Al-Nahda at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
64′Al-Nahda score on 64′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Al-Nahda 3–0 Sur
65′We said Al-Nahda at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′Al-Nahda find the net on 83′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Al-Nahda 4–0 Sur
84′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′A goal for Al-Nahda on 90′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
91′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Al-Nahda 5–0 Sur
97′Sur score on 90′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Al-Nahda 5–1 Sur
98′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Al-Nahda 5–1 Sur
FTAl-Nahda 5–1 Sur · Al-Nahda win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Nahda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Nahda 57%, draw 24%, Sur 19%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Al-Nahda v SurBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Al-Nahda win57%

Draw24%

Sur win19%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Nahda

Sur

5Days since last match9

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 10 Oct · Professional League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al-Nahda	3	+2	7
14	Sur	4	−6	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-nahda winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

57% The market67%

Us57%

~~Market~~67%

We make Al-Nahda a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Nahda v Sur~~1.59 – 0.78

~~Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 0~~4 v 14

~~The market · Al-Nahda win~~67% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Nahda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Nahda win	57%	67%	−10
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Sur win	19%	12%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	42%	52%	−10
Both teams to score	42%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	77%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	22%	33%	−11
Al-Nahda or draw	81%	88%	−7
Al-Nahda clean sheet	46%	–	–
Sur clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 9.1 7.8 2.9 1 15.2 11.0 4.5 2 11.7 8.9 3.5 3 6.3 4.8 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Nahda down, Sur across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 840 Professional League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Nahda at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sur away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Al-Nahda, 0.78 for Sur. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALN 3–2 SUR · SUR 1–1 ALN · ALN 4–2 SUR · SUR 0–2 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Professional League this season · since 30 Aug

AL-NAHDA

WWD1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1

SUR

LLLL2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Nasr	4	+6	12
2	Saham	5	0	9
3	Al Seeb	4	+3	7
4	Al-Nahda	3	+2	7
5	Al-Shabab	3	+2	6
6	Bahla	4	0	6
7	Oman Club	4	0	6
8	Smail	5	−3	6
9	Ibri	5	+2	5
10	Fanja	5	−1	5
11	Dhofar	5	−2	5
12	Sohar	4	−2	5
13	Al Musannah	5	−1	4
14	Sur	4	−6	0