Stabæk W v Hønefoss W prediction · Toppserien

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Stabæk W 0–1 Hønefoss W STABÆK W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stabæk W win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.151

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stabæk W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stabæk W 63%, draw 21%, Hønefoss W 16%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Stabæk W v Hønefoss WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stabæk W win63%

Draw21%

Hønefoss W win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 19

VenueNadderud Stadion

RefereeS. M. Jensen

Line-ups

Stabæk W

Hønefoss W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stabæk W

Hønefoss W

13Days since last match13

Last match: 4 Oct · Toppserien

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Stabæk W	18	+16	27
9	Hønefoss W	18	−14	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stabæk W

Formation not confirmed

13 E. Ronning

16 K. Kraft

4 M. Flo

2 E. Bolviken

21 S. Pallesen-Nygard

6 C. Halvorsen

8 N. Noss

7 M. Berg-Solemdal

9 G. Ron

18 A. Malmin

23 K. Gumaer

Coach · Luke Torjussen

Substitutes

1 · M. Leonards

3 · H. de Lange

10 · Jeong Da-Bin

20 · A. Castberg

24 · R. Thorleifsson

28 · A. Grindhaug

77 · E. Tapaeva

91 · M. Ayhan

Hønefoss W

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Ervik

15 M. Rovelstad

23 L. Hansen

13 M. S. Pedersen

33 F. Lang

11 S. K. Hamborg

7 E. Ruud

10 O. Stalesen

8 S. Bjerksaeter

21 S. Nyhagen

14 M. Dunsby

Coach · Remi Natvik

Substitutes

12 · J. Osteras

5 · M. Johannsdottir

16 · A. Tandberg

17 · C. Haug

19 · A. Anderdal

20 · C. Larsen

22 · E. Roed

25 · A. Lipsey

28 · H. Obstfelder Svang

Our number · stabæk w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Stabæk W a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stabæk W v Hønefoss W~~1.91 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 16~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stabæk W win	63%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Hønefoss W win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Stabæk W or draw	84%	–	–
Stabæk W clean sheet	45%	–	–
Hønefoss W clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 6.7 5.8 2.2 1 13.1 9.7 4.1 2 11.9 9.3 3.8 3 7.6 5.9 2.4 4 3.8 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stabæk W down, Hønefoss W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 709 Toppserien matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Toppserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stabæk W at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hønefoss W away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Stabæk W, 0.80 for Hønefoss W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HON 1–2 STA · HON 0–2 STA · STA 1–0 HON · HON 0–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 15 Aug

STABÆK W

DWWLLW1–1 · 7–1 · 5–1 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 3–0

HØNEFOSS W

LLWDDW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brann W	18	+48	47
2	Fortuna Ålesund W	19	+28	47
3	Rosenborg W	18	+13	38
4	Vålerenga W	18	+21	35
5	Lyn W	19	+11	29
6	Stabæk W	18	+16	27
7	Molde W	18	−13	18
8	Haugesund W	18	−19	18
9	Hønefoss W	18	−14	16
10	LSK Kvinner W	18	−11	15
11	Røa W	19	−20	14
12	Bodø / Glimt W	19	−60	6