Stabæk W v Fortuna Ålesund W prediction · Toppserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stabæk WDrawFortuna Ålesund W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fortuna Ålesund W 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fortuna Ålesund W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stabæk W 29%, draw 23%, Fortuna Ålesund W 48%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Stabæk W v Fortuna Ålesund WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Stabæk W win29%

Draw23%

Fortuna Ålesund W win48%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 21

VenueNadderud Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stabæk W

Fortuna Ålesund W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Toppserien

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Fortuna Ålesund W	20	+31	50
6	Stabæk W	20	+14	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fortuna ålesund w winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Fortuna Ålesund W a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stabæk W v Fortuna Ålesund W~~1.19 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 27 v 50~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stabæk W win	29%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Fortuna Ålesund W win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Stabæk W or draw	52%	–	–
Stabæk W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Fortuna Ålesund W clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.8 10.3 7.9 4.3 1 7.7 10.9 9.1 5.0 2.1 2 4.3 6.7 5.4 2.9 3 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stabæk W down, Fortuna Ålesund W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 719 Toppserien matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Toppserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stabæk W at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fortuna Ålesund W away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Stabæk W, 1.63 for Fortuna Ålesund W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FOR 2–2 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 11 Sept

STABÆK W

WLLWLL5–1 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

FORTUNA ÅLESUND W

WWDWWW2–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brann W	20	+49	51
2	Fortuna Ålesund W	20	+31	50
3	Rosenborg W	20	+15	42
4	Vålerenga W	20	+23	38
5	Lyn W	20	+12	32
6	Stabæk W	20	+14	27
7	Haugesund W	20	−16	24
8	Hønefoss W	20	−15	19
9	Molde W	20	−16	18
10	Røa W	20	−19	17
11	LSK Kvinner W	20	−17	15
12	Bodø / Glimt W	20	−61	6