Røa W v Stabæk W prediction · Toppserien

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Røa W 2–1 Stabæk W STABÆK W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stabæk W win~~55%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.971

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.894

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stabæk W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Røa W 22%, draw 24%, Stabæk W 55%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Røa W v Stabæk WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Røa W win22%

Draw24%

Stabæk W win55%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 20

VenueRoabanen

RefereeM. Hatletvedt

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Røa W

Stabæk W

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Toppserien

Last match: 17 Oct · Toppserien

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Stabæk W	19	+15	27
11	Røa W	19	−20	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stabæk w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:10 · locked at kick-off

55% The market51%

Us55%

~~Market~~51%

We make Stabæk W a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Røa W v Stabæk W~~0.92 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 27~~11 v 6

~~The market · Stabæk W win~~51% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stabæk W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Røa W win	22%	24%	−2
Draw	24%	24%	0
Stabæk W win	55%	51%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	57%	−10
Both teams to score	47%	58%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	72%	78%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	26%	37%	−11
Røa W or draw	45%	49%	−4
Røa W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Stabæk W clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.6 13.0 10.3 5.8 2.5 1 7.5 11.0 9.2 5.1 2.2 2 3.3 5.3 4.3 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Røa W down, Stabæk W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Toppserien matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Toppserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Røa W at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Stabæk W away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Røa W, 1.66 for Stabæk W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STA 0–1 ROA · ROA 1–1 STA · ROA 0–0 STA · STA 2–1 ROA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 22 Aug

RØA W

LLDLWL1–3 · 3–6 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

STABÆK W

WWLLWL7–1 · 5–1 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brann W	19	+48	48
2	Fortuna Ålesund W	19	+28	47
3	Rosenborg W	19	+13	39
4	Vålerenga W	19	+24	38
5	Lyn W	19	+11	29
6	Stabæk W	19	+15	27
7	Haugesund W	20	−16	24
8	Hønefoss W	19	−13	19
9	Molde W	19	−15	18
10	LSK Kvinner W	19	−14	15
11	Røa W	19	−20	14
12	Bodø / Glimt W	20	−61	6