LSK Kvinner W v Vålerenga W prediction · Toppserien

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

LSK Kvinner W 0–3 Vålerenga W VÅLERENGA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vålerenga W win~~64%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.194

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.094

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vålerenga W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: LSK Kvinner W 18%, draw 18%, Vålerenga W 64%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on LSK Kvinner W v Vålerenga WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

LSK Kvinner W win18%

Draw18%

Vålerenga W win64%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 19

VenueLKS-Hallen

RefereeM. Green Dahle

Line-ups

LSK Kvinner W

Vålerenga W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

LSK Kvinner W

Vålerenga W

13Days since last match13

Last match: 4 Oct · Toppserien

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vålerenga W	18	+21	35
10	LSK Kvinner W	18	−11	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

LSK Kvinner W

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Sporsem

19 J. Mansaray

4 S. Tofft

5 M. Nurmela

3 S. Eggesvik

10 M. Christensen

8 K. Hjelmhaug

2 M. Johannesen

35 E. Reshane

25 J. Klaeboe

22 L. Cotrau

Coach · –

Substitutes

26 · L. Rimbault

27 · E. Thorud

31 · I. Guzman

32 · K. Ims

33 · T. Andersson

Vålerenga W

Formation not confirmed

13 F. Birkisdottir

14 K. Kosola

2 S. Horte

28 A. Eiriksdottir

6 N. Eckhoff

23 E. Hegg

10 H. Lowry

22 T. Enger

30 S. Brekken

16 R. Arnesen

11 M. Preus

Coach · Nils Lexerod

Substitutes

7 · N. Inauen

18 · M. Lundorf

19 · A. Makela

25 · S. Hansen

27 · L. Klech

31 · L. Petersson

32 · L. Wang

Our number · vålerenga w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market75%

Us64%

~~Market~~75%

We make Vålerenga W a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · LSK Kvinner W v Vålerenga W~~1.21 – 2.44

~~Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 14 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 35~~10 v 4

~~The market · Vålerenga W win~~75% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vålerenga W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LSK Kvinner W win	18%	10%	+8
Draw	18%	15%	+3
Vålerenga W win	64%	75%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Both teams to score	63%	57%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	87%	87%	0
Over 3.5 goals	49%	53%	−4
LSK Kvinner W or draw	36%	25%	+11
LSK Kvinner W clean sheet	9%	–	–
Vålerenga W clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.0%

0123450 2.6 6.7 7.7 6.2 3.8 1 3.6 7.5 9.0 7.2 4.5 2.32 2.0 4.7 5.5 4.4 2.7 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+LSK Kvinner W down, Vålerenga W across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 709 Toppserien matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Toppserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

LSK Kvinner W at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vålerenga W away: 3.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for LSK Kvinner W, 2.44 for Vålerenga W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VAL 3–2 LSK · VAL 2–0 LSK · VAL 3–1 LSK · LSK 0–2 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 14 Aug

LSK KVINNER W

LDLLLL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

VÅLERENGA W

WWWWWD4–1 · 2–1 · 6–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brann W	18	+48	47
2	Fortuna Ålesund W	19	+28	47
3	Rosenborg W	18	+13	38
4	Vålerenga W	18	+21	35
5	Lyn W	19	+11	29
6	Stabæk W	18	+16	27
7	Molde W	18	−13	18
8	Haugesund W	18	−19	18
9	Hønefoss W	18	−14	16
10	LSK Kvinner W	18	−11	15
11	Røa W	19	−20	14
12	Bodø / Glimt W	19	−60	6