Hønefoss W v Rosenborg W prediction · Toppserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hønefoss WDrawRosenborg W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rosenborg W 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rosenborg W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hønefoss W 16%, draw 21%, Rosenborg W 63%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Hønefoss W v Rosenborg WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hønefoss W win16%

Draw21%

Rosenborg W win63%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 20

RefereeM. Ahmady

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hønefoss W

Rosenborg W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Toppserien

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Rosenborg W	19	+13	39
8	Hønefoss W	19	−13	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rosenborg w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Rosenborg W a 63% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hønefoss W v Rosenborg W~~0.80 – 1.87

~~Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 20 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 39~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rosenborg W win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hønefoss W win	16%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Rosenborg W win	63%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Hønefoss W or draw	37%	–	–
Hønefoss W clean sheet	16%	–	–
Rosenborg W clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.5%

0123450 7.0 13.5 12.0 7.5 3.6 1 6.0 9.9 9.3 5.8 2.7 2 2.3 4.1 3.7 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hønefoss W down, Rosenborg W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Toppserien matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Toppserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hønefoss W at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rosenborg W away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.80 goals for Hønefoss W, 1.87 for Rosenborg W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ROS 2–0 HON · ROS 8–0 HON · ROS 0–0 HON · HON 2–3 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Toppserien this season · since 20 Aug

HØNEFOSS W

LWDDWW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

ROSENBORG W

WWWDDD3–2 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brann W	19	+48	48
2	Fortuna Ålesund W	19	+28	47
3	Rosenborg W	19	+13	39
4	Vålerenga W	19	+24	38
5	Lyn W	19	+11	29
6	Stabæk W	19	+15	27
7	Haugesund W	20	−16	24
8	Hønefoss W	19	−13	19
9	Molde W	19	−15	18
10	LSK Kvinner W	19	−14	15
11	Røa W	19	−20	14
12	Bodø / Glimt W	20	−61	6