Rosenborg v Ham-Kam prediction · NM Cupen

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RosenborgDrawHam-Kam

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rosenborg 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rosenborg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rosenborg 63%, draw 19%, Ham-Kam 17%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Rosenborg v Ham-KamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Rosenborg win63%

Draw19%

Ham-Kam win17%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueLerkendal Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rosenborg

Ham-Kam

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Eliteserien

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rosenborg winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Rosenborg a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rosenborg v Ham-Kam~~2.27 – 1.10

~~Form · NM Cupen this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rosenborg win	63%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Ham-Kam win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Rosenborg or draw	83%	–	–
Rosenborg clean sheet	34%	–	–
Ham-Kam clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 3.8 2.2 1 7.8 8.7 4.7 2 8.8 9.5 5.2 3 6.6 7.1 3.9 4 3.8 4.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rosenborg down, Ham-Kam across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,392 Eliteserien matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rosenborg at home: 3.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ham-Kam away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Rosenborg, 1.10 for Ham-Kam. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAM 0–3 ROS · ROS 4–0 HAM · HAM 4–0 ROS · ROS 2–0 HAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · NM Cupen this season · since 22 Aug

ROSENBORG

WW9–0 · 4–1

HAM-KAM

WW5–0 · 2–0

Rosenborg v Ham-Kam

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

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Rest & schedule

Rosenborg

Ham-Kam

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · NM Cupen this season · since 22 Aug