Viking v Tromso prediction · Eliteserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VikingDrawTromso

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Viking 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viking are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viking 62%, draw 19%, Tromso 18%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Viking v TromsoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Viking win62%

Draw19%

Tromso win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSR-Bank Arena

RefereeMarius Lien

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viking

Tromso

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · Eliteserien

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viking winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

62% The market63%

Us62%

~~Market~~63%

We make Viking a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viking v Tromso~~2.29 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 56 v 40~~1 v 5

~~The market · Viking win~~63% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viking win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viking win	62%	63%	−1
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Tromso win	18%	17%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	67%	65%	+2
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Viking or draw	82%	83%	−1
Viking clean sheet	32%	–	–
Tromso clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.4 3.8 2.2 1 7.3 8.5 4.9 2 8.3 9.4 5.5 2.1 3 6.3 7.1 4.1 4 3.6 4.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viking down, Tromso across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,394 Eliteserien matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viking at home: 3.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tromso away: 2.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Viking, 1.16 for Tromso. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TRO 1–3 VIK · VIK 4–4 TRO · TRO 2–2 VIK · VIK 2–1 TRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug

VIKING

WDWWWW2–1 · 1–1 · 8–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

TROMSO

DLLWDD0–0 · 0–2 · 3–5 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	23	+37	56
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	+37	56
3	Molde	23	+17	40
4	Rosenborg	24	+15	40
5	Tromso	23	+11	40
6	Lillestrom	23	+1	36
7	Brann	23	+3	29
8	Valerenga	24	−7	29
9	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
10	KFUM Oslo	23	−9	29
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	−6	28
12	Ham-Kam	24	−18	26
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	23	−29	16