Viking v Fredrikstad prediction · Eliteserien

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Viking 3–2 Fredrikstad VIKING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viking win~~68%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.152

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.126

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viking win at 68%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Viking 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–13
2′KICK-OFF Viking v Fredrikstad
7′We said Viking at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–9–4
7′Viking find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–9–4
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Viking 1–0 Fredrikstad
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Viking win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Viking 1–1 Fredrikstad
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Viking win: 68% at kick-off, 61% now
28′Bryan Fiabema scores for Fredrikstad on 27′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 61–25–15
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Viking win: 68% at kick-off, 58% now
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Joe Bell · Viking
39′We said Viking at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 56%. 1–1 · 56–29–15
40′We said Viking at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–2 · 27–29–44
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Viking 1–2 Fredrikstad
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Viking win: 68% at kick-off, 27% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Fredrikstad win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Viking win 27%)
41′40′: Gabriel Wesseh on the scoresheet for Fredrikstad, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 26–29–45
44′We said Viking at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–29–46
45′HALF-TIME Viking 1–2 Fredrikstad
45′SECOND HALF Viking 1–2 Fredrikstad
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Viking · On: Zlatko Tripić · Off: Niklas Fuglestad
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Viking · On: Henrik Bjørdal · Off: Joe Bell
48′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Vetle Auklend · Viking
53′We said Viking at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–30–51
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Viking win: 68% at kick-off, 18% now
57′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 86–12–2
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Viking 3–2 Fredrikstad
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Viking win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Viking win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Fredrikstad win 2%)
58′56′: Peter Christiansen on the scoresheet for Viking. 3–2 · 86–12–2
60′Peter Christiansen scores for Viking on 57′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 87–12–2
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Viking · On: Jesper Daland · Off: Henrik Falchener
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Fredrikstad · On: Henrik Langaas Skogvold · Off: jakub jezierski
64′We said Viking at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 4–2 · 98–1–0
64′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 98–1–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Viking 4–2 Fredrikstad
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Viking win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' Viking
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Viking win: 68% at kick-off, 87% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Sondre Sørløkk · Fredrikstad
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Fredrikstad · On: Fanuel Ghebreyohannes · Off: Gabriel Wesseh
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Viking · On: Herman Haugen · Off: Vetle Auklend
74′We said Viking at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Daniel Eid · Fredrikstad
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fredrikstad · On: Leonard Owusu · Off: Solomon Owusu
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fredrikstad · On: Johannes Andres Hummelvoll-Nunez · Off: Samuel Holm
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fredrikstad · On: Benjamin Thoresen Faraas · Off: Sondre Sørløkk
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Viking · On: Jakob Segadal Hansen · Off: Peter Christiansen
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Viking win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Erik Botheim · Viking
FTFULL TIME Viking 3–2 Fredrikstad
FTViking 3–2 Fredrikstad · Viking win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viking are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viking 68%, draw 18%, Fredrikstad 13%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Viking v FredrikstadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Viking win68%

Draw18%

Fredrikstad win13%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueSR-Bank Arena

RefereeMarius Hansen Grotta

Line-ups

Viking

4-3-3

Fredrikstad

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viking

Fredrikstad

4Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 11 Oct · Eliteserien

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Champions League review: PSG’s benchmark, Viking uprising and an Italian-German dilemmaThe Guardian · 15 Oct 14:34 · Paris Saint Germain, Viking

Viking snatch draw against Bayern Munich in six-goal thrillerBBC Sport · 14 Oct 22:00 · Viking, Bayern München

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Viking

4-3-3

1 A. Ostbo

5 H. Heggheim

6 G. Stensness

25 H. Falchener

24 V. Auklend

29 T. Moi

8 J. Bell

26 S. Kvia-Egeskog

23 N. Fuglestad

22 E. Botheim

20 P. Christiansen

Coach · Bjarte Aarsheim

Substitutes

30 · L. Belko

2 · H. J. Haugen

17 · E. Bassey

27 · J. Daland

16 · H. Bjordal

33 · J. Hansen

10 · Z. Tripic

11 · R. Postema

19 · A. Cosic

Fredrikstad

3-4-3

77 M. Borsheim

38 I. Amundsen

4 F. Holme

28 S. Owusu

16 D. Eid

6 S. Leach

21 J. Jezierski

13 S. Sorlokk

29 G. Wesseh

18 B. Fiabema

11 L. West

Coach · Casper Rojkjaer

Substitutes

30 · J. Torkildsen

19 · F. Ghebreyohannes

5 · S. Rafn

12 · U. Fredriksen

24 · L. Owusu

7 · B. Faraas

9 · S. Laghzaoui

10 · J. Nunez

23 · H. Skogvold

Our number · viking winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

68% The market71%

Us68%

~~Market~~71%

We make Viking a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viking v Fredrikstad~~2.31 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 14 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 53 v 29~~1 v 8

~~The market · Viking win~~71% · ours 68%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viking win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viking win	68%	71%	−3
Draw	18%	17%	+1
Fredrikstad win	13%	12%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	68%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	85%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	48%	−8
Viking or draw	87%	88%	−1
Viking clean sheet	41%	–	–
Fredrikstad clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.6%

0123450 4.3 3.7 1 9.3 8.5 3.8 2 10.6 9.5 4.3 3 8.1 7.2 3.3 4 4.8 4.2 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Viking down, Fredrikstad across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,384 Eliteserien matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viking at home: 3.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fredrikstad away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Viking, 0.90 for Fredrikstad. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FRE 1–2 VIK · FRE 0–1 VIK · VIK 3–0 FRE · FRE 3–2 VIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 14 Aug

VIKING

LWDWWW1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 8–1 · 3–0 · 2–0

FREDRIKSTAD

WWLDDD1–0 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	22	+36	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	22	+36	53
3	Tromso	22	+11	39
4	Molde	22	+12	37
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
6	Lillestrom	22	−1	33
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	−7	29
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	−3	28
10	KFUM Oslo	22	−9	28
11	Ham-Kam	22	−13	26
12	Sandefjord	22	−6	24
13	Valerenga	22	−10	23
14	Aalesund	22	−15	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	−21	19
16	Start	22	−24	16