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Tromso v KFUM Oslo
Tromso
KFUM OsloEliteserien · SUN 18 OCT · Alfheim
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Tromso win at 55%.
- 0′KICK-OFF Tromso v KFUM Oslo
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Tromso 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–22
- 9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Ola Visted · KFUM Oslo
- 30′Tromso have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 48–31–21
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
- 40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Daniel Schneider · KFUM Oslo
- 43′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–36–20
- 45′HALF-TIME Tromso 0–0 KFUM Oslo
- 45′SECOND HALF Tromso 0–0 KFUM Oslo
- 52′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
- 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Tromso win 38%)
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 38–44–19
- 58′8 shots for Tromso, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–46–18
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' KFUM Oslo · On: Robin Rasch · Off: Martin Tangen Vinjor
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
- 61′Troy Engseth Nyhammer scores for Tromso on 59′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–3
- 61′We said Tromso at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–15–3
- 61′⚽ GOAL · 59' Tromso 1–0 KFUM Oslo · Troy Engseth Nyhammer
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
- 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Tromso win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
- 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Troy Engseth Nyhammer · Tromso
- 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Sander Håvik Innvær · Tromso
- 67′We said Tromso at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 67′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–55–15
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' KFUM Oslo · On: Magnus Grødem · Off: Bjorn Martin Kristensen
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Tromso 1–1 KFUM Oslo
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 30% now
- 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Tromso win 30%)
- 68′66′: Fredrik Tobias Berglie on the scoresheet for KFUM Oslo, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–56–15
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' KFUM Oslo · On: Tore Andre Soras · Off: Eirik Saunes
- 70′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–59–14
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tromso · On: Vince Osuji · Off: Casper Oyvann
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tromso · On: Lars Olden Larsen · Off: Morten Bjorlo
- 71′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 26–60–14
- 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Alexander Warneryd · Tromso
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
- 73′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Brage Skaret · KFUM Oslo
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' David Edvardsson · Tromso
- 78′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tromso · On: Daniel Braut · Off: Troy Engseth Nyhammer
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tromso · On: Vegard Erlien · Off: Heine Asen Larsen
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
- 82′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–79–7
- 86′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' KFUM Oslo · On: Hakon Rosten · Off: Fredrik Tobias Berglie
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' KFUM Oslo · On: Rasmus Eggen Vinge · Off: Bilal Njie
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tromso · On: Jesper Andreas Grundt · Off: David Edvardsson
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
- 92′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
- 93′12 shots for Tromso, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 3–95–2
- FTFULL TIME Tromso 1–1 KFUM Oslo
- FTTromso 1–1 KFUM Oslo · Tromso win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Tromso are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Tromso 55%, draw 23%, KFUM Oslo 22%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Tromso win55%
KFUM Oslo win22%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:15
RoundMatchday 24
VenueAlfheim
RefereeSigurd Smehus Kringstad
Match timeline
All events
TromsoMIN
KFUM OsloEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Tromso
5-3-2
KFUM Oslo
3-4-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Tromso
KFUM Oslo
Last match: 11 Oct · Eliteserien
Last match: 12 Oct · Eliteserien
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Tromso
5-3-2
1 J. Haugaard
37 S. Innvaer
4 V. Skjaervik
25 C. Oyvann
30 I. Vadebu
29 A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd
5 D. Edvardsson
11 R. Jenssen
70 M. Bjorlo
10 T. Nyhammer
22 H. Larsen
Coach · Jorgen Vik
Substitutes
12 · O. Lauvli
33 · M. Jatta
27 · M. Mikkelsen
24 · V. Osuji
8 · J. Grundt
7 · L. O. Larsen
17 · I. Dahlqvist
9 · D. Braut
15 · V. Erlien
KFUM Oslo
3-4-3
1 E. Odegaard
13 B. Skaret
5 F. Berglie
2 D. Schneider
14 H. Hoseth
19 E. Saunes
9 M. Vinjor
16 J. Hjorth
11 O. Visted
22 B. Kristensen
10 B. Njie
Coach · Jorgen Isnes
Substitutes
25 · H. Jenssen
24 · H. Rosten
42 · D. Hickson
7 · R. Rasch
28 · M. Grodem
27 · T. Soras
8 · B. Tobiassen
21 · S. Sjokvist
18 · R. E. Vinge
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Tromso
5-3-2
1 J. Haugaard
37 S. Innvaer
4 V. Skjaervik
25 C. Oyvann
30 I. Vadebu
29 A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd
5 D. Edvardsson
11 R. Jenssen
70 M. Bjorlo
10 T. Nyhammer
22 H. Larsen
Coach · Jorgen Vik
Substitutes
12 · O. Lauvli
33 · M. Jatta
27 · M. Mikkelsen
24 · V. Osuji
8 · J. Grundt
7 · L. O. Larsen
17 · I. Dahlqvist
9 · D. Braut
15 · V. Erlien
KFUM Oslo
3-4-3
1 E. Odegaard
13 B. Skaret
5 F. Berglie
2 D. Schneider
14 H. Hoseth
19 E. Saunes
9 M. Vinjor
16 J. Hjorth
11 O. Visted
22 B. Kristensen
10 B. Njie
Coach · Jorgen Isnes
Substitutes
25 · H. Jenssen
24 · H. Rosten
42 · D. Hickson
7 · R. Rasch
28 · M. Grodem
27 · T. Soras
8 · B. Tobiassen
21 · S. Sjokvist
18 · R. E. Vinge
We make Tromso a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tromso win | 55% | 65% | −10 |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | +2 |
| KFUM Oslo win | 22% | 14% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 37% | −6 |
| Tromso or draw | 78% | 86% | −8 |
| Tromso clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| KFUM Oslo clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 15 Aug
TROMSO
KFUM OSLO
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 23 | +38 | 56 |
| 2 | Viking | 23 | +37 | 56 |
| 3 | Tromso | 22 | +11 | 39 |
| 4 | Molde | 22 | +12 | 37 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 23 | +12 | 37 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | −1 | 33 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | +5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 23 | −8 | 29 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 23 | −6 | 28 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 22 | −9 | 28 |
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 23 | −15 | 26 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | −6 | 24 |
| 13 | Aalesund | 23 | −12 | 24 |
| 14 | Valerenga | 22 | −10 | 23 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 23 | −24 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 22 | −24 | 16 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Molde
Rosenborg
Lillestrom
Brann
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
Sandefjord
Aalesund
Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
Start