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Tromso v KFUM Oslo

Tromso
1–1Full time
KFUM Oslo

Eliteserien · SUN 18 OCT · Alfheim

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:01
Tromso 1–1 KFUM Oslo TROMSO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Tromso win55%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.933
The market’s Brier score1.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 34 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tromso win at 55%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Tromso v KFUM Oslo
  3. 1′Little has changed for our model: Tromso 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–22
  4. 9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Ola Visted · KFUM Oslo
  5. 30′Tromso have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 48–31–21
  6. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  7. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Daniel Schneider · KFUM Oslo
  8. 43′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–36–20
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Tromso 0–0 KFUM Oslo
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Tromso 0–0 KFUM Oslo
  11. 52′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
  12. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Tromso win 38%)
  13. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 38–44–19
  14. 58′8 shots for Tromso, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–46–18
  15. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' KFUM Oslo · On: Robin Rasch · Off: Martin Tangen Vinjor
  16. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
  17. 61′Troy Engseth Nyhammer scores for Tromso on 59′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–3
  18. 61′We said Tromso at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–15–3
  19. 61′⚽ GOAL · 59' Tromso 1–0 KFUM Oslo · Troy Engseth Nyhammer
  20. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
  21. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Tromso win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  22. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Troy Engseth Nyhammer · Tromso
  23. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Sander Håvik Innvær · Tromso
  24. 67′We said Tromso at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  25. 67′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–55–15
  26. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' KFUM Oslo · On: Magnus Grødem · Off: Bjorn Martin Kristensen
  28. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Tromso 1–1 KFUM Oslo
  29. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 30% now
  30. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Tromso win 30%)
  31. 68′66′: Fredrik Tobias Berglie on the scoresheet for KFUM Oslo, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–56–15
  32. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' KFUM Oslo · On: Tore Andre Soras · Off: Eirik Saunes
  33. 70′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–59–14
  34. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tromso · On: Vince Osuji · Off: Casper Oyvann
  35. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tromso · On: Lars Olden Larsen · Off: Morten Bjorlo
  36. 71′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 26–60–14
  37. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Alexander Warneryd · Tromso
  38. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  39. 73′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
  40. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Brage Skaret · KFUM Oslo
  41. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' David Edvardsson · Tromso
  42. 78′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
  43. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tromso · On: Daniel Braut · Off: Troy Engseth Nyhammer
  44. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tromso · On: Vegard Erlien · Off: Heine Asen Larsen
  45. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  46. 82′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–79–7
  47. 86′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  48. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' KFUM Oslo · On: Hakon Rosten · Off: Fredrik Tobias Berglie
  49. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' KFUM Oslo · On: Rasmus Eggen Vinge · Off: Bilal Njie
  50. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tromso · On: Jesper Andreas Grundt · Off: David Edvardsson
  51. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Tromso win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
  52. 92′We said Tromso at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  53. 93′12 shots for Tromso, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 3–95–2
  54. FTFULL TIME Tromso 1–1 KFUM Oslo
  55. FTTromso 1–1 KFUM Oslo · Tromso win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tromso are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tromso 55%, draw 23%, KFUM Oslo 22%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Tromso v KFUM OsloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tromso win55%
Draw23%
KFUM Oslo win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:15

RoundMatchday 24

VenueAlfheim

RefereeSigurd Smehus Kringstad

Line-ups

Tromso

5-3-2

KFUM Oslo

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tromso

KFUM Oslo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 12 Oct · Eliteserien

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Tromso22+1139
10KFUM Oslo22−928

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tromso

5-3-2

1 J. Haugaard

37 S. Innvaer

4 V. Skjaervik

25 C. Oyvann

30 I. Vadebu

29 A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

5 D. Edvardsson

11 R. Jenssen

70 M. Bjorlo

10 T. Nyhammer

22 H. Larsen

Coach · Jorgen Vik

Substitutes

12 · O. Lauvli

33 · M. Jatta

27 · M. Mikkelsen

24 · V. Osuji

8 · J. Grundt

7 · L. O. Larsen

17 · I. Dahlqvist

9 · D. Braut

15 · V. Erlien

KFUM Oslo

3-4-3

1 E. Odegaard

13 B. Skaret

5 F. Berglie

2 D. Schneider

14 H. Hoseth

19 E. Saunes

9 M. Vinjor

16 J. Hjorth

11 O. Visted

22 B. Kristensen

10 B. Njie

Coach · Jorgen Isnes

Substitutes

25 · H. Jenssen

24 · H. Rosten

42 · D. Hickson

7 · R. Rasch

28 · M. Grodem

27 · T. Soras

8 · B. Tobiassen

21 · S. Sjokvist

18 · R. E. Vinge

Our number · tromso winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
55% The market65%
Us55%
Market65%

We make Tromso a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tromso v KFUM Oslo1.78 – 1.02
Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 15 AugW1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 39 v 283 v 10
The market · Tromso win65% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 17:37
Our probability · Tromso win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tromso win55%65%−10
Draw23%21%+2
KFUM Oslo win22%14%+8
Over 2.5 goals53%58%−5
Both teams to score53%52%+1
Over 1.5 goals77%79%−2
Over 3.5 goals31%37%−6
Tromso or draw78%86%−8
Tromso clean sheet36%––
KFUM Oslo clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 6.4 6.2 3.2 1 10.7 11.1 5.6 2 9.6 9.6 4.9 3 5.7 5.7 2.9 4 2.6 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tromso down, KFUM Oslo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsKFU 0–0 TRO · KFU 2–1 TRO · TRO 2–0 KFU · KFU 1–3 TRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 15 Aug

TROMSO

LDLLWD2–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–5 · 3–2 · 1–1

KFUM OSLO

DLLWWW1–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bodo/Glimt23+3856
2Viking23+3756
3Tromso22+1139
4Molde22+1237
5Rosenborg23+1237
6Lillestrom22−133
7Brann22+529
8Fredrikstad23−829
9Sarpsborg 08 FF23−628
10KFUM Oslo22−928
11Ham-Kam23−1526
12Sandefjord22−624
13Aalesund23−1224
14Valerenga22−1023
15Kristiansund BK23−2419
16Start22−2416

The competition's standings before kick-off.